Mogu Inc Stock Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 16.72
| MOGU Stock | USD 2.10 0.08 3.67% |
MOGU |
MOGU Target Price Odds to finish over 16.72
The tendency of MOGU Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 16.72 or more in 90 days |
| 2.10 | 90 days | 16.72 | close to zero percent |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of MOGU to move over $ 16.72 or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This MOGU Inc probability density function shows the probability of MOGU Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of MOGU Inc price to stay between its current price of $ 2.10 and $ 16.72 at the end of the 90-day period is about 71.61 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days MOGU Inc has a beta of -0.18. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding MOGU are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, MOGU Inc is likely to outperform the market. Additionally MOGU Inc has an alpha of 0.0933, implying that it can generate a 0.0933 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). MOGU Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for MOGU
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MOGU Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.MOGU Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. MOGU is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the MOGU's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold MOGU Inc, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of MOGU within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.09 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.18 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.14 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.01 |
MOGU Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of MOGU for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for MOGU Inc can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| MOGU Inc generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| MOGU Inc has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| MOGU Inc has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 160.34 M. Net Loss for the year was (59.28 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 177.87 M. | |
| MOGU Inc currently holds about 637.98 M in cash with (40.46 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 76.74, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Roughly 16.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: MOGU.us Stock Drops 6.43 percent Amid Financial Struggles |
MOGU Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of MOGU Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential MOGU's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. MOGU's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 8.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 420.1 M |
MOGU Technical Analysis
MOGU's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. MOGU Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of MOGU Inc. In general, you should focus on analyzing MOGU Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
MOGU Predictive Forecast Models
MOGU's time-series forecasting models is one of many MOGU's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary MOGU's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about MOGU Inc
Checking the ongoing alerts about MOGU for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for MOGU Inc help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| MOGU Inc generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| MOGU Inc has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| MOGU Inc has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 160.34 M. Net Loss for the year was (59.28 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 177.87 M. | |
| MOGU Inc currently holds about 637.98 M in cash with (40.46 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 76.74, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Roughly 16.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: MOGU.us Stock Drops 6.43 percent Amid Financial Struggles |
Additional Tools for MOGU Stock Analysis
When running MOGU's price analysis, check to measure MOGU's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy MOGU is operating at the current time. Most of MOGU's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of MOGU's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move MOGU's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of MOGU to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.