Mach Natural Resources Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 15.43
| MNR Stock | USD 20.98 5.95 39.59% |
Mach |
Mach Natural Target Price Odds to finish below 15.43
The tendency of Mach Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 15.43 or more in 90 days |
| 20.98 | 90 days | 15.43 | about 26.25 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Mach Natural to drop to $ 15.43 or more in 90 days from now is about 26.25 (This Mach Natural Resources probability density function shows the probability of Mach Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Mach Natural Resources price to stay between $ 15.43 and its current price of $20.98 at the end of the 90-day period is about 73.4 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Mach Natural has a beta of 0.48. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Mach Natural average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Mach Natural Resources will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Mach Natural Resources has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Mach Natural Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Mach Natural
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mach Natural Resources. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Mach Natural Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Mach Natural is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Mach Natural's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Mach Natural Resources, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Mach Natural within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.16 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.48 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.40 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.16 |
Mach Natural Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Mach Natural for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Mach Natural Resources can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Mach Natural generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 73.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from simplywall.st: Mach Natural Resources Takes On Some Risk With Its Use Of Debt |
Mach Natural Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Mach Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Mach Natural's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Mach Natural's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 94.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 152.8 M |
Mach Natural Technical Analysis
Mach Natural's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Mach Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Mach Natural Resources. In general, you should focus on analyzing Mach Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Mach Natural Predictive Forecast Models
Mach Natural's time-series forecasting models is one of many Mach Natural's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Mach Natural's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Mach Natural Resources
Checking the ongoing alerts about Mach Natural for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Mach Natural Resources help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Mach Natural generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 73.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from simplywall.st: Mach Natural Resources Takes On Some Risk With Its Use Of Debt |
Additional Tools for Mach Stock Analysis
When running Mach Natural's price analysis, check to measure Mach Natural's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Mach Natural is operating at the current time. Most of Mach Natural's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Mach Natural's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Mach Natural's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Mach Natural to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.