Moleculin Biotech Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 0.05
| MBRX Stock | USD 1.51 0.16 9.58% |
Moleculin |
Moleculin Biotech Target Price Odds to finish below 0.05
The tendency of Moleculin Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 0.05 or more in 90 days |
| 1.51 | 90 days | 0.05 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Moleculin Biotech to drop to $ 0.05 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Moleculin Biotech probability density function shows the probability of Moleculin Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Moleculin Biotech price to stay between $ 0.05 and its current price of $1.51 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Moleculin Biotech has a beta of -0.38. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Moleculin Biotech are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Moleculin Biotech is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Moleculin Biotech has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Moleculin Biotech Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Moleculin Biotech
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Moleculin Biotech. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Moleculin Biotech Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Moleculin Biotech is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Moleculin Biotech's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Moleculin Biotech, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Moleculin Biotech within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.39 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.38 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.24 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.07 |
Moleculin Biotech Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Moleculin Biotech for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Moleculin Biotech can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Moleculin Biotech generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Moleculin Biotech has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Moleculin Biotech may become a speculative penny stock | |
| Moleculin Biotech has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Net Loss for the year was (29.77 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. | |
| Moleculin Biotech currently holds about 58 M in cash with (24.1 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 2.03, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Moleculin Biotech has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Moleculin Biotech, Inc. Posts Investor Presentation on Corporate Website |
Moleculin Biotech Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Moleculin Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Moleculin Biotech's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Moleculin Biotech's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 23.6 M |
Moleculin Biotech Technical Analysis
Moleculin Biotech's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Moleculin Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Moleculin Biotech. In general, you should focus on analyzing Moleculin Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Moleculin Biotech Predictive Forecast Models
Moleculin Biotech's time-series forecasting models is one of many Moleculin Biotech's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Moleculin Biotech's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Moleculin Biotech
Checking the ongoing alerts about Moleculin Biotech for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Moleculin Biotech help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Moleculin Biotech generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Moleculin Biotech has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Moleculin Biotech may become a speculative penny stock | |
| Moleculin Biotech has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Net Loss for the year was (29.77 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. | |
| Moleculin Biotech currently holds about 58 M in cash with (24.1 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 2.03, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Moleculin Biotech has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Moleculin Biotech, Inc. Posts Investor Presentation on Corporate Website |
Additional Tools for Moleculin Stock Analysis
When running Moleculin Biotech's price analysis, check to measure Moleculin Biotech's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Moleculin Biotech is operating at the current time. Most of Moleculin Biotech's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Moleculin Biotech's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Moleculin Biotech's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Moleculin Biotech to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.