Eli Lilly (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 168.88

LILY34 Stock  BRL 168.88  3.75  2.27%   
Eli Lilly's future price is the expected price of Eli Lilly instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Eli Lilly and performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Eli Lilly Backtesting, Eli Lilly Valuation, Eli Lilly Correlation, Eli Lilly Hype Analysis, Eli Lilly Volatility, Eli Lilly History as well as Eli Lilly Performance.
  
Please specify Eli Lilly's target price for which you would like Eli Lilly odds to be computed.

Eli Lilly Target Price Odds to finish over 168.88

The tendency of Eli Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 168.88 90 days 168.88 
about 31.93
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Eli Lilly to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 31.93 (This Eli Lilly and probability density function shows the probability of Eli Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Eli Lilly and has a beta of -0.52. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Eli Lilly are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Eli Lilly and is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Eli Lilly and has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Eli Lilly Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Eli Lilly

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Eli Lilly. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
162.75165.13167.51
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
133.05135.43181.64
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
178.64181.02183.40
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
148.16156.11164.07
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Eli Lilly. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Eli Lilly's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Eli Lilly's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Eli Lilly.

Eli Lilly Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Eli Lilly is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Eli Lilly's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Eli Lilly and, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Eli Lilly within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.04
β
Beta against Dow Jones-0.52
σ
Overall volatility
9.60
Ir
Information ratio -0.08

Eli Lilly Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Eli Lilly for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Eli Lilly can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Eli Lilly generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days

Eli Lilly Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Eli Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Eli Lilly's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Eli Lilly's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding953.7 M
Cash And Short Term Investments3.9 B

Eli Lilly Technical Analysis

Eli Lilly's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Eli Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Eli Lilly and. In general, you should focus on analyzing Eli Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Eli Lilly Predictive Forecast Models

Eli Lilly's time-series forecasting models is one of many Eli Lilly's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Eli Lilly's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Eli Lilly

Checking the ongoing alerts about Eli Lilly for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Eli Lilly help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Eli Lilly generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Eli Stock

When determining whether Eli Lilly offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Eli Lilly's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Eli Lilly And Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Eli Lilly And Stock:
Check out Eli Lilly Backtesting, Eli Lilly Valuation, Eli Lilly Correlation, Eli Lilly Hype Analysis, Eli Lilly Volatility, Eli Lilly History as well as Eli Lilly Performance.
You can also try the Latest Portfolios module to quick portfolio dashboard that showcases your latest portfolios.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Eli Lilly's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Eli Lilly is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Eli Lilly's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.