Impala Platinum (South Africa) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 8944.95

IMP Stock   10,088  170.00  1.66%   
Impala Platinum's future price is the expected price of Impala Platinum instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Impala Platinum Holdings performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Impala Platinum Backtesting, Impala Platinum Valuation, Impala Platinum Correlation, Impala Platinum Hype Analysis, Impala Platinum Volatility, Impala Platinum History as well as Impala Platinum Performance.
  
Please specify Impala Platinum's target price for which you would like Impala Platinum odds to be computed.

Impala Platinum Target Price Odds to finish below 8944.95

The tendency of Impala Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to  8,945  or more in 90 days
 10,088 90 days 8,945 
roughly 2.56
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Impala Platinum to drop to  8,945  or more in 90 days from now is roughly 2.56 (This Impala Platinum Holdings probability density function shows the probability of Impala Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Impala Platinum Holdings price to stay between  8,945  and its current price of 10088.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 23.42 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Impala Platinum Holdings has a beta of -0.0549. This usually indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Impala Platinum are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Impala Platinum Holdings is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Impala Platinum Holdings has an alpha of 0.462, implying that it can generate a 0.46 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Impala Platinum Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Impala Platinum

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Impala Platinum Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
10,08510,08810,091
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
8,9428,94511,097
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
10,21610,21910,222
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
9,88310,30910,735
Details

Impala Platinum Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Impala Platinum is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Impala Platinum's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Impala Platinum Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Impala Platinum within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.46
β
Beta against Dow Jones-0.05
σ
Overall volatility
877.81
Ir
Information ratio 0.10

Impala Platinum Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Impala Platinum for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Impala Platinum Holdings can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Impala Platinum had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
About 73.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors

Impala Platinum Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Impala Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Impala Platinum's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Impala Platinum's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding834.6 M
Cash And Short Term Investments27.6 B

Impala Platinum Technical Analysis

Impala Platinum's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Impala Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Impala Platinum Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing Impala Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Impala Platinum Predictive Forecast Models

Impala Platinum's time-series forecasting models is one of many Impala Platinum's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Impala Platinum's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Impala Platinum Holdings

Checking the ongoing alerts about Impala Platinum for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Impala Platinum Holdings help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Impala Platinum had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
About 73.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors

Other Information on Investing in Impala Stock

Impala Platinum financial ratios help investors to determine whether Impala Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Impala with respect to the benefits of owning Impala Platinum security.