Harmony Gold Mining Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 10.45
| HMY Stock | USD 8.24 0.07 0.84% |
Harmony |
Harmony Gold Target Price Odds to finish below 10.45
The tendency of Harmony Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 10.45 after 90 days |
| 8.24 | 90 days | 10.45 | about 73.28 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Harmony Gold to stay under $ 10.45 after 90 days from now is about 73.28 (This Harmony Gold Mining probability density function shows the probability of Harmony Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Harmony Gold Mining price to stay between its current price of $ 8.24 and $ 10.45 at the end of the 90-day period is about 66.71 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Harmony Gold has a beta of 0.81. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Harmony Gold average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Harmony Gold Mining will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Harmony Gold Mining has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Harmony Gold Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Harmony Gold
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Harmony Gold Mining. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Harmony Gold Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Harmony Gold is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Harmony Gold's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Harmony Gold Mining, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Harmony Gold within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.36 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.81 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.04 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.1 |
Harmony Gold Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Harmony Gold for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Harmony Gold Mining can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Harmony Gold Mining generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Harmony Gold Mining has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Harmony Gold Mining is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Harmony Gold Mining has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Latest headline from simplywall.st: 3 ASX Penny Stocks With Market Caps Under A80M To Consider |
Harmony Gold Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Harmony Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Harmony Gold's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Harmony Gold's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 629.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4.7 B |
Harmony Gold Technical Analysis
Harmony Gold's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Harmony Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Harmony Gold Mining. In general, you should focus on analyzing Harmony Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Harmony Gold Predictive Forecast Models
Harmony Gold's time-series forecasting models is one of many Harmony Gold's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Harmony Gold's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Harmony Gold Mining
Checking the ongoing alerts about Harmony Gold for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Harmony Gold Mining help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Harmony Gold Mining generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Harmony Gold Mining has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Harmony Gold Mining is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Harmony Gold Mining has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Latest headline from simplywall.st: 3 ASX Penny Stocks With Market Caps Under A80M To Consider |
Additional Tools for Harmony Stock Analysis
When running Harmony Gold's price analysis, check to measure Harmony Gold's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Harmony Gold is operating at the current time. Most of Harmony Gold's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Harmony Gold's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Harmony Gold's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Harmony Gold to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.