Gubre Fabrikalari (Turkey) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 192.22
| GUBRF Stock | TRY 282.50 7.75 2.82% |
Gubre |
Gubre Fabrikalari Target Price Odds to finish below 192.22
The tendency of Gubre Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 192.22 or more in 90 days |
| 282.50 | 90 days | 192.22 | about 18.26 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Gubre Fabrikalari to drop to 192.22 or more in 90 days from now is about 18.26 (This Gubre Fabrikalari TAS probability density function shows the probability of Gubre Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Gubre Fabrikalari TAS price to stay between 192.22 and its current price of 282.5 at the end of the 90-day period is about 77.2 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Gubre Fabrikalari TAS has a beta of -0.0498. This usually indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Gubre Fabrikalari are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Gubre Fabrikalari TAS is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Gubre Fabrikalari TAS has an alpha of 0.5394, implying that it can generate a 0.54 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Gubre Fabrikalari Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Gubre Fabrikalari
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Gubre Fabrikalari TAS. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Gubre Fabrikalari Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Gubre Fabrikalari is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Gubre Fabrikalari's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Gubre Fabrikalari TAS, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Gubre Fabrikalari within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.54 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.05 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 34.70 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.19 |
Gubre Fabrikalari Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Gubre Fabrikalari for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Gubre Fabrikalari TAS can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Gubre Fabrikalari has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Gubre Fabrikalari TAS has accumulated 1.71 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 149.5, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Gubre Fabrikalari TAS has a current ratio of 0.9, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Gubre Fabrikalari until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Gubre Fabrikalari's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Gubre Fabrikalari TAS sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Gubre to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Gubre Fabrikalari's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Gubre Fabrikalari TAS has accumulated about 729.4 M in cash with (514.24 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 2.18. | |
| Roughly 85.0% of Gubre Fabrikalari shares are held by company insiders |
Gubre Fabrikalari Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Gubre Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Gubre Fabrikalari's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Gubre Fabrikalari's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 334 M |
Gubre Fabrikalari Technical Analysis
Gubre Fabrikalari's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Gubre Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Gubre Fabrikalari TAS. In general, you should focus on analyzing Gubre Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Gubre Fabrikalari Predictive Forecast Models
Gubre Fabrikalari's time-series forecasting models is one of many Gubre Fabrikalari's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Gubre Fabrikalari's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Gubre Fabrikalari TAS
Checking the ongoing alerts about Gubre Fabrikalari for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Gubre Fabrikalari TAS help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Gubre Fabrikalari has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Gubre Fabrikalari TAS has accumulated 1.71 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 149.5, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Gubre Fabrikalari TAS has a current ratio of 0.9, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Gubre Fabrikalari until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Gubre Fabrikalari's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Gubre Fabrikalari TAS sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Gubre to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Gubre Fabrikalari's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Gubre Fabrikalari TAS has accumulated about 729.4 M in cash with (514.24 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 2.18. | |
| Roughly 85.0% of Gubre Fabrikalari shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Gubre Stock
Gubre Fabrikalari financial ratios help investors to determine whether Gubre Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Gubre with respect to the benefits of owning Gubre Fabrikalari security.