Gran Tierra Energy Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 5.03
| GTE Stock | USD 6.77 0.64 10.44% |
Gran |
Gran Tierra Target Price Odds to finish below 5.03
The tendency of Gran Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 5.03 or more in 90 days |
| 6.77 | 90 days | 5.03 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Gran Tierra to drop to $ 5.03 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Gran Tierra Energy probability density function shows the probability of Gran Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Gran Tierra Energy price to stay between $ 5.03 and its current price of $6.77 at the end of the 90-day period is about 82.17 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Gran Tierra has a beta of 0.57. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Gran Tierra average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Gran Tierra Energy will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Gran Tierra Energy has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Gran Tierra Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Gran Tierra
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Gran Tierra Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Gran Tierra's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Gran Tierra Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Gran Tierra is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Gran Tierra's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Gran Tierra Energy, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Gran Tierra within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.25 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.57 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.39 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.09 |
Gran Tierra Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Gran Tierra for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Gran Tierra Energy can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Gran Tierra Energy had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Gran Tierra Energy has 555.14 M in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 1.46, which is OK given its current industry classification. Gran Tierra Energy has a current ratio of 0.71, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for Gran to invest in growth at high rates of return. | |
| The entity reported the last year's revenue of 636.96 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (6.29 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 538.81 M. | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Ryan Ellson of 242 shares of Gran Tierra at 6.15 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Gran Tierra Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Gran Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Gran Tierra's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Gran Tierra's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 33.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 62.1 M |
Gran Tierra Technical Analysis
Gran Tierra's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Gran Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Gran Tierra Energy. In general, you should focus on analyzing Gran Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Gran Tierra Predictive Forecast Models
Gran Tierra's time-series forecasting models is one of many Gran Tierra's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Gran Tierra's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Gran Tierra Energy
Checking the ongoing alerts about Gran Tierra for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Gran Tierra Energy help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Gran Tierra Energy had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Gran Tierra Energy has 555.14 M in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 1.46, which is OK given its current industry classification. Gran Tierra Energy has a current ratio of 0.71, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for Gran to invest in growth at high rates of return. | |
| The entity reported the last year's revenue of 636.96 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (6.29 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 538.81 M. | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Ryan Ellson of 242 shares of Gran Tierra at 6.15 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Check out Gran Tierra Backtesting, Gran Tierra Valuation, Gran Tierra Correlation, Gran Tierra Hype Analysis, Gran Tierra Volatility, Gran Tierra History as well as Gran Tierra Performance. You can also try the Transaction History module to view history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance.
Is Oil & Gas Exploration & Production space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Gran Tierra. If investors know Gran will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Gran Tierra listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.81) | Earnings Share 1.43 | Revenue Per Share 19.878 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.16) | Return On Assets 0.0651 |
The market value of Gran Tierra Energy is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Gran that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Gran Tierra's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Gran Tierra's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Gran Tierra's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Gran Tierra's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Gran Tierra's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Gran Tierra is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Gran Tierra's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.