Gemfields (South Africa) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 156.38
| GML Stock | 174.00 16.00 10.13% |
Gemfields |
Gemfields Target Price Odds to finish over 156.38
The tendency of Gemfields Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above 156.38 in 90 days |
| 174.00 | 90 days | 156.38 | about 98.0 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Gemfields to stay above 156.38 in 90 days from now is about 98.0 (This Gemfields Group probability density function shows the probability of Gemfields Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Gemfields Group price to stay between 156.38 and its current price of 174.0 at the end of the 90-day period is nearly 4.57 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Gemfields Group has a beta of -0.8. This usually indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Gemfields are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Gemfields Group is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Gemfields Group has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Gemfields Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Gemfields
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Gemfields Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Gemfields Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Gemfields is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Gemfields' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Gemfields Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Gemfields within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.5 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.8 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 35.91 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.12 |
Gemfields Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Gemfields for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Gemfields Group can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Gemfields Group generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Gemfields Group has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| About 48.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Gemfields Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Gemfields Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Gemfields' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Gemfields' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.2 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 97.7 M |
Gemfields Technical Analysis
Gemfields' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Gemfields Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Gemfields Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing Gemfields Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Gemfields Predictive Forecast Models
Gemfields' time-series forecasting models is one of many Gemfields' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Gemfields' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Gemfields Group
Checking the ongoing alerts about Gemfields for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Gemfields Group help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Gemfields Group generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Gemfields Group has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| About 48.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Gemfields Stock
Gemfields financial ratios help investors to determine whether Gemfields Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Gemfields with respect to the benefits of owning Gemfields security.