Gemfields' market value is the price at which a share of Gemfields trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of Gemfields Group investors about its performance. Gemfields is trading at 145.00 as of the 10th of January 2025, a 10.49 percent decrease since the beginning of the trading day. The stock's lowest day price was 142.0. With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Gemfields Group and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Gemfields over a given investment horizon. Check out Gemfields Correlation, Gemfields Volatility and Gemfields Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Gemfields.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Gemfields' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Gemfields is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Gemfields' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
Gemfields 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Gemfields' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Gemfields.
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Gemfields' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Gemfields Group upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Gemfields' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Gemfields' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Gemfields historical prices to predict the future Gemfields' volatility.
Gemfields Group holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of -0.15, which attests that the entity had a -0.15% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Gemfields Group exposes twenty-four different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please check out Gemfields' Standard Deviation of 5.48, risk adjusted performance of (0.11), and Market Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.5541 to validate the risk estimate we provide. The company retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of -1.49, which attests to a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Gemfields are expected to decrease by larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoil, Gemfields is expected to outperform it. At this point, Gemfields Group has a negative expected return of -0.8%. Please make sure to check out Gemfields' skewness, rate of daily change, and the relationship between the value at risk and accumulation distribution , to decide if Gemfields Group performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation
0.56
Modest predictability
Gemfields Group has modest predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Gemfields time series from 21st of January 2023 to 16th of January 2024 and 16th of January 2024 to 10th of January 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Gemfields Group price movement. The serial correlation of 0.56 indicates that roughly 56.0% of current Gemfields price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient
0.56
Spearman Rank Test
0.38
Residual Average
0.0
Price Variance
1239.49
Gemfields Group lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Gemfields stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Gemfields' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Gemfields returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Gemfields has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values
Timeline
Gemfields regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Gemfields stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Gemfields stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Gemfields stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices
Timeline
Gemfields Lagged Returns
When evaluating Gemfields' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Gemfields stock have on its future price. Gemfields autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Gemfields autocorrelation shows the relationship between Gemfields stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Gemfields Group.
Regressed Prices
Timeline
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
Gemfields financial ratios help investors to determine whether Gemfields Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Gemfields with respect to the benefits of owning Gemfields security.