FORTEC Elektronik (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 18.20
| FEV Stock | 18.20 0.30 1.62% |
FORTEC |
FORTEC Elektronik Target Price Odds to finish over 18.20
The tendency of FORTEC Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 18.20 | 90 days | 18.20 | about 89.26 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of FORTEC Elektronik to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 89.26 (This FORTEC Elektronik AG probability density function shows the probability of FORTEC Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon FORTEC Elektronik AG has a beta of -0.39. This usually indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding FORTEC Elektronik are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, FORTEC Elektronik AG is likely to outperform the market. Additionally FORTEC Elektronik AG has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. FORTEC Elektronik Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for FORTEC Elektronik
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as FORTEC Elektronik. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of FORTEC Elektronik's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
FORTEC Elektronik Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. FORTEC Elektronik is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the FORTEC Elektronik's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold FORTEC Elektronik AG, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of FORTEC Elektronik within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.02 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.39 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.54 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.02 |
FORTEC Elektronik Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of FORTEC Elektronik for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for FORTEC Elektronik can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| FORTEC Elektronik generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 36.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
FORTEC Elektronik Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of FORTEC Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential FORTEC Elektronik's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. FORTEC Elektronik's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 3.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 13.5 M |
FORTEC Elektronik Technical Analysis
FORTEC Elektronik's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. FORTEC Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of FORTEC Elektronik AG. In general, you should focus on analyzing FORTEC Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
FORTEC Elektronik Predictive Forecast Models
FORTEC Elektronik's time-series forecasting models is one of many FORTEC Elektronik's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary FORTEC Elektronik's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about FORTEC Elektronik
Checking the ongoing alerts about FORTEC Elektronik for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for FORTEC Elektronik help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| FORTEC Elektronik generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 36.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Additional Tools for FORTEC Stock Analysis
When running FORTEC Elektronik's price analysis, check to measure FORTEC Elektronik's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy FORTEC Elektronik is operating at the current time. Most of FORTEC Elektronik's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of FORTEC Elektronik's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move FORTEC Elektronik's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of FORTEC Elektronik to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.