FORTEC Elektronik (Germany) Market Value
| FEV Stock | 18.20 0.30 1.62% |
| Symbol | FORTEC |
FORTEC Elektronik 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to FORTEC Elektronik's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of FORTEC Elektronik.
| 11/28/2023 |
| 12/22/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in FORTEC Elektronik on November 28, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding FORTEC Elektronik AG or generate 0.0% return on investment in FORTEC Elektronik over 390 days. FORTEC Elektronik is related to or competes with Arrow Electronics, DICKER DATA, PC Connection, KAGA EL, Esprinet SpA, Wayside Technology, and FORTEC Elektronik. More
FORTEC Elektronik Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure FORTEC Elektronik's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess FORTEC Elektronik AG upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.02) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 8.94 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.65) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.41 |
FORTEC Elektronik Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for FORTEC Elektronik's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as FORTEC Elektronik's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use FORTEC Elektronik historical prices to predict the future FORTEC Elektronik's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.0004) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.02) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.08) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0637 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of FORTEC Elektronik's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
FORTEC Elektronik Backtested Returns
FORTEC Elektronik secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0439, which denotes the company had a -0.0439% return per unit of volatility over the last 3 months. FORTEC Elektronik AG exposes twenty-four different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm FORTEC Elektronik's Standard Deviation of 1.9, mean deviation of 1.34, and Market Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0737 to check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.39, which means possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning FORTEC Elektronik are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, FORTEC Elektronik is likely to outperform the market. At this point, FORTEC Elektronik has a negative expected return of -0.0802%. Please make sure to confirm FORTEC Elektronik's skewness, as well as the relationship between the rate of daily change and price action indicator , to decide if FORTEC Elektronik performance from the past will be repeated at future time.
Auto-correlation | 0.37 |
Below average predictability
FORTEC Elektronik AG has below average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between FORTEC Elektronik time series from 28th of November 2023 to 10th of June 2024 and 10th of June 2024 to 22nd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of FORTEC Elektronik price movement. The serial correlation of 0.37 indicates that just about 37.0% of current FORTEC Elektronik price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.37 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.29 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.73 |
FORTEC Elektronik lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is FORTEC Elektronik stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting FORTEC Elektronik's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of FORTEC Elektronik returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that FORTEC Elektronik has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
FORTEC Elektronik regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If FORTEC Elektronik stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if FORTEC Elektronik stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in FORTEC Elektronik stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
FORTEC Elektronik Lagged Returns
When evaluating FORTEC Elektronik's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of FORTEC Elektronik stock have on its future price. FORTEC Elektronik autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, FORTEC Elektronik autocorrelation shows the relationship between FORTEC Elektronik stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in FORTEC Elektronik AG.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Tools for FORTEC Stock Analysis
When running FORTEC Elektronik's price analysis, check to measure FORTEC Elektronik's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy FORTEC Elektronik is operating at the current time. Most of FORTEC Elektronik's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of FORTEC Elektronik's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move FORTEC Elektronik's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of FORTEC Elektronik to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.