Century Aluminum (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 12.86
| EY3 Stock | EUR 17.20 0.25 1.43% |
Century |
Century Aluminum Target Price Odds to finish below 12.86
The tendency of Century Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 12.86 or more in 90 days |
| 17.20 | 90 days | 12.86 | about 5.47 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Century Aluminum to drop to € 12.86 or more in 90 days from now is about 5.47 (This Century Aluminum probability density function shows the probability of Century Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Century Aluminum price to stay between € 12.86 and its current price of €17.2 at the end of the 90-day period is about 35.6 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.09 suggesting Century Aluminum market returns are reactive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Century Aluminum is expected to follow. Additionally Century Aluminum has an alpha of 0.4534, implying that it can generate a 0.45 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Century Aluminum Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Century Aluminum
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Century Aluminum. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Century Aluminum Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Century Aluminum is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Century Aluminum's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Century Aluminum, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Century Aluminum within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.45 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.09 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.16 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.11 |
Century Aluminum Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Century Aluminum for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Century Aluminum can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Century Aluminum had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Century Aluminum has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the revenue of 2.78 B. Net Loss for the year was (14.1 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 46.7 M. | |
| About 58.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Century Aluminum Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Century Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Century Aluminum's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Century Aluminum's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 91.3 M | |
| Short Long Term Debt | 111.1 M | |
| Shares Float | 52 M |
Century Aluminum Technical Analysis
Century Aluminum's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Century Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Century Aluminum. In general, you should focus on analyzing Century Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Century Aluminum Predictive Forecast Models
Century Aluminum's time-series forecasting models is one of many Century Aluminum's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Century Aluminum's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Century Aluminum
Checking the ongoing alerts about Century Aluminum for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Century Aluminum help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Century Aluminum had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Century Aluminum has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the revenue of 2.78 B. Net Loss for the year was (14.1 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 46.7 M. | |
| About 58.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Century Stock
When determining whether Century Aluminum offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Century Aluminum's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Century Aluminum Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Century Aluminum Stock:Check out Century Aluminum Backtesting, Century Aluminum Valuation, Century Aluminum Correlation, Century Aluminum Hype Analysis, Century Aluminum Volatility, Century Aluminum History as well as Century Aluminum Performance. For more detail on how to invest in Century Stock please use our How to Invest in Century Aluminum guide.You can also try the Theme Ratings module to determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.