Exxon Mobil (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 72.35
| EXXO34 Stock | BRL 83.99 0.28 0.33% |
Exxon |
Exxon Mobil Target Price Odds to finish below 72.35
The tendency of Exxon Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to R$ 72.35 or more in 90 days |
| 83.99 | 90 days | 72.35 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Exxon Mobil to drop to R$ 72.35 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Exxon Mobil probability density function shows the probability of Exxon Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Exxon Mobil price to stay between R$ 72.35 and its current price of R$83.99 at the end of the 90-day period is about 48.59 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Exxon Mobil has a beta of -0.0758 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Exxon Mobil are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Exxon Mobil is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Exxon Mobil has an alpha of 0.1405, implying that it can generate a 0.14 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Exxon Mobil Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Exxon Mobil
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Exxon Mobil. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Exxon Mobil Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Exxon Mobil is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Exxon Mobil's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Exxon Mobil, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Exxon Mobil within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.14 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.08 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.55 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.03 |
Exxon Mobil Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Exxon Mobil for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Exxon Mobil can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Exxon Mobil has accumulated 40.56 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 22.4, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Exxon Mobil has a current ratio of 0.75, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Exxon Mobil until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Exxon Mobil's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Exxon Mobil sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Exxon to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Exxon Mobil's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. |
Exxon Mobil Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Exxon Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Exxon Mobil's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Exxon Mobil's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 4.1 B |
Exxon Mobil Technical Analysis
Exxon Mobil's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Exxon Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Exxon Mobil. In general, you should focus on analyzing Exxon Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Exxon Mobil Predictive Forecast Models
Exxon Mobil's time-series forecasting models is one of many Exxon Mobil's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Exxon Mobil's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Exxon Mobil
Checking the ongoing alerts about Exxon Mobil for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Exxon Mobil help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Exxon Mobil has accumulated 40.56 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 22.4, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Exxon Mobil has a current ratio of 0.75, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Exxon Mobil until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Exxon Mobil's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Exxon Mobil sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Exxon to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Exxon Mobil's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. |
Other Information on Investing in Exxon Stock
Exxon Mobil financial ratios help investors to determine whether Exxon Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Exxon with respect to the benefits of owning Exxon Mobil security.