Evotec SE (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 9.18
| EVT Stock | 8.54 0.13 1.55% |
Evotec |
Evotec SE Target Price Odds to finish below 9.18
The tendency of Evotec Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 9.18 after 90 days |
| 8.54 | 90 days | 9.18 | about 85.52 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Evotec SE to stay under 9.18 after 90 days from now is about 85.52 (This Evotec SE probability density function shows the probability of Evotec Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Evotec SE price to stay between its current price of 8.54 and 9.18 at the end of the 90-day period is about 12.23 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Evotec SE has a beta of 0.59 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Evotec SE average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Evotec SE will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Evotec SE has an alpha of 0.7006, implying that it can generate a 0.7 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Evotec SE Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Evotec SE
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Evotec SE. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Evotec SE's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Evotec SE Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Evotec SE is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Evotec SE's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Evotec SE, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Evotec SE within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.70 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.59 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.46 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.12 |
Evotec SE Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Evotec SE for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Evotec SE can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Evotec SE is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Evotec SE appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| About 66.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Evotec SE Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Evotec Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Evotec SE's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Evotec SE's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 166.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 858.5 M |
Evotec SE Technical Analysis
Evotec SE's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Evotec Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Evotec SE. In general, you should focus on analyzing Evotec Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Evotec SE Predictive Forecast Models
Evotec SE's time-series forecasting models is one of many Evotec SE's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Evotec SE's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Evotec SE
Checking the ongoing alerts about Evotec SE for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Evotec SE help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Evotec SE is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Evotec SE appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| About 66.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Additional Tools for Evotec Stock Analysis
When running Evotec SE's price analysis, check to measure Evotec SE's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Evotec SE is operating at the current time. Most of Evotec SE's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Evotec SE's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Evotec SE's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Evotec SE to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.