Evotec SE Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

EVT Stock   8.41  0.06  0.72%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Evotec SE on the next trading day is expected to be 8.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.31 and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.31. Evotec Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Evotec SE works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Evotec SE Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Evotec SE on the next trading day is expected to be 8.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.31, mean absolute percentage error of 0.24, and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.31.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Evotec Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Evotec SE's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Evotec SE Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Evotec SEEvotec SE Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Evotec SE Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Evotec SE's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Evotec SE's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2.36 and 14.36, respectively. We have considered Evotec SE's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
8.41
8.36
Expected Value
14.36
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Evotec SE stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Evotec SE stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0147
MADMean absolute deviation0.3104
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0391
SAESum of the absolute errors18.3122
When Evotec SE prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Evotec SE trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Evotec SE observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Evotec SE

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Evotec SE. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Evotec SE's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
2.418.4114.41
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.846.8412.84
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Evotec SE

For every potential investor in Evotec, whether a beginner or expert, Evotec SE's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Evotec Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Evotec. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Evotec SE's price trends.

Evotec SE Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Evotec SE stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Evotec SE could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Evotec SE by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Evotec SE Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Evotec SE's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Evotec SE's current price.

Evotec SE Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Evotec SE stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Evotec SE shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Evotec SE stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Evotec SE entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Evotec SE Risk Indicators

The analysis of Evotec SE's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Evotec SE's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting evotec stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Tools for Evotec Stock Analysis

When running Evotec SE's price analysis, check to measure Evotec SE's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Evotec SE is operating at the current time. Most of Evotec SE's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Evotec SE's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Evotec SE's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Evotec SE to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.