Manufatura (Brazil) Probability of Future Preferred Stock Price Finishing Over 7.40
| ESTR4 Preferred Stock | BRL 3.56 0.07 2.01% |
Manufatura |
Manufatura Target Price Odds to finish over 7.40
The tendency of Manufatura Preferred Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over R$ 7.40 or more in 90 days |
| 3.56 | 90 days | 7.40 | close to zero percent |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Manufatura to move over R$ 7.40 or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This Manufatura de Brinquedos probability density function shows the probability of Manufatura Preferred Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Manufatura de Brinquedos price to stay between its current price of R$ 3.56 and R$ 7.40 at the end of the 90-day period is about 59.87 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Manufatura de Brinquedos has a beta of -0.74 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Manufatura are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Manufatura de Brinquedos is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Manufatura de Brinquedos has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Manufatura Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Manufatura
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Manufatura de Brinquedos. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the preferred stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the preferred stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Manufatura Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Manufatura is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Manufatura's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Manufatura de Brinquedos, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Manufatura within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.34 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.74 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.24 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.08 |
Manufatura Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Manufatura for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Manufatura de Brinquedos can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Manufatura generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Manufatura has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Manufatura has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company has a current ratio of 0.15, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Manufatura until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Manufatura's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Manufatura de Brinquedos sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Manufatura to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Manufatura's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Manufatura de Brinquedos reported the revenue of 154.93 M. Net Loss for the year was (28.45 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 61.21 M. | |
| Manufatura de Brinquedos has accumulated about 849 K in cash with (22.89 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 2.4. | |
| Roughly 61.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Manufatura Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Manufatura Preferred Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Manufatura's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Manufatura's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 808.4 K | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.6 M |
Manufatura Technical Analysis
Manufatura's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Manufatura Preferred Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Manufatura de Brinquedos. In general, you should focus on analyzing Manufatura Preferred Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Manufatura Predictive Forecast Models
Manufatura's time-series forecasting models is one of many Manufatura's preferred stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Manufatura's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the preferred stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Manufatura de Brinquedos
Checking the ongoing alerts about Manufatura for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Manufatura de Brinquedos help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Manufatura generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Manufatura has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Manufatura has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company has a current ratio of 0.15, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Manufatura until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Manufatura's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Manufatura de Brinquedos sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Manufatura to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Manufatura's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Manufatura de Brinquedos reported the revenue of 154.93 M. Net Loss for the year was (28.45 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 61.21 M. | |
| Manufatura de Brinquedos has accumulated about 849 K in cash with (22.89 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 2.4. | |
| Roughly 61.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Additional Tools for Manufatura Preferred Stock Analysis
When running Manufatura's price analysis, check to measure Manufatura's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Manufatura is operating at the current time. Most of Manufatura's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Manufatura's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Manufatura's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Manufatura to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.