Dollar General (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 16.53
| DGCO34 Stock | BRL 18.95 1.00 5.01% |
Dollar |
Dollar General Target Price Odds to finish below 16.53
The tendency of Dollar Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to R$ 16.53 or more in 90 days |
| 18.95 | 90 days | 16.53 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Dollar General to drop to R$ 16.53 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Dollar General probability density function shows the probability of Dollar Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Dollar General price to stay between R$ 16.53 and its current price of R$18.95 at the end of the 90-day period is about 35.36 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Dollar General has a beta of -0.2 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Dollar General are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Dollar General is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Dollar General has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Dollar General Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Dollar General
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Dollar General. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Dollar General Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Dollar General is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Dollar General's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Dollar General, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Dollar General within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.03 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.2 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.64 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.02 |
Dollar General Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Dollar General for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Dollar General can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Dollar General generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
Dollar General Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Dollar Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Dollar General's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Dollar General's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 230 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 344.8 M |
Dollar General Technical Analysis
Dollar General's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Dollar Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Dollar General. In general, you should focus on analyzing Dollar Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Dollar General Predictive Forecast Models
Dollar General's time-series forecasting models is one of many Dollar General's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Dollar General's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Dollar General
Checking the ongoing alerts about Dollar General for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Dollar General help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Dollar General generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Dollar Stock
When determining whether Dollar General is a strong investment it is important to analyze Dollar General's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Dollar General's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Dollar Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Dollar General Backtesting, Dollar General Valuation, Dollar General Correlation, Dollar General Hype Analysis, Dollar General Volatility, Dollar General History as well as Dollar General Performance. For information on how to trade Dollar Stock refer to our How to Trade Dollar Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Optimization module to compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk.