Dollar General Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| DGCO34 Stock | BRL 18.95 1.00 5.01% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Dollar General on the next trading day is expected to be 17.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.33 and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.40. Dollar Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Dollar General stock prices and determine the direction of Dollar General's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Dollar General's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Dollar |
Dollar General Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Dollar General on the next trading day is expected to be 17.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.33, mean absolute percentage error of 0.19, and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.40.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Dollar Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Dollar General's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Dollar General Stock Forecast Pattern
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Dollar General Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Dollar General's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Dollar General's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 15.04 and 19.88, respectively. We have considered Dollar General's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Dollar General stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Dollar General stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.4425 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3344 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0174 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 20.4003 |
Predictive Modules for Dollar General
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Dollar General. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Dollar General
For every potential investor in Dollar, whether a beginner or expert, Dollar General's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Dollar Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Dollar. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Dollar General's price trends.Dollar General Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Dollar General stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Dollar General could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Dollar General by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Dollar General Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Dollar General's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Dollar General's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Dollar General Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Dollar General stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Dollar General shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Dollar General stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Dollar General entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | (9,223,372,036,855) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.95 | |||
| Day Median Price | 18.95 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 18.95 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.50) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.00) |
Dollar General Risk Indicators
The analysis of Dollar General's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Dollar General's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting dollar stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.7 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.39 | |||
| Variance | 5.69 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Dollar Stock
When determining whether Dollar General is a strong investment it is important to analyze Dollar General's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Dollar General's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Dollar Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Dollar General to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Dollar Stock refer to our How to Trade Dollar Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.