Coty Inc Stock Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 7.54
| COTY Stock | USD 7.04 0.04 0.57% |
Coty |
Coty Target Price Odds to finish below 7.54
The tendency of Coty Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 7.54 after 90 days |
| 7.04 | 90 days | 7.54 | about 30.73 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Coty to stay under $ 7.54 after 90 days from now is about 30.73 (This Coty Inc probability density function shows the probability of Coty Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Coty Inc price to stay between its current price of $ 7.04 and $ 7.54 at the end of the 90-day period is about 17.82 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Coty has a beta of 0.79 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Coty average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Coty Inc will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Coty Inc has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Coty Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Coty
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Coty Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Coty's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Coty Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Coty is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Coty's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Coty Inc, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Coty within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.44 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.79 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.80 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.19 |
Coty Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Coty for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Coty Inc can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Coty Inc generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Coty Inc currently holds 4.26 B in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 1.35, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Coty Inc has a current ratio of 0.65, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Coty's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| Coty Inc has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 61.0% of Coty shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from simplywall.st: Investors Still Waiting For A Pull Back In Coty Inc. |
Coty Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Coty Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Coty's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Coty's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 883.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 300.8 M |
Coty Technical Analysis
Coty's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Coty Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Coty Inc. In general, you should focus on analyzing Coty Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Coty Predictive Forecast Models
Coty's time-series forecasting models is one of many Coty's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Coty's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Coty Inc
Checking the ongoing alerts about Coty for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Coty Inc help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Coty Inc generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Coty Inc currently holds 4.26 B in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 1.35, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Coty Inc has a current ratio of 0.65, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Coty's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| Coty Inc has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 61.0% of Coty shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from simplywall.st: Investors Still Waiting For A Pull Back In Coty Inc. |
Additional Tools for Coty Stock Analysis
When running Coty's price analysis, check to measure Coty's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Coty is operating at the current time. Most of Coty's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Coty's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Coty's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Coty to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.