Chemung Financial Corp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 57.16

CHMG Stock  USD 50.05  0.35  0.70%   
Chemung Financial's future price is the expected price of Chemung Financial instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Chemung Financial Corp performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Chemung Financial Backtesting, Chemung Financial Valuation, Chemung Financial Correlation, Chemung Financial Hype Analysis, Chemung Financial Volatility, Chemung Financial History as well as Chemung Financial Performance.
  
At this time, Chemung Financial's Price Book Value Ratio is most likely to increase slightly in the upcoming years. The Chemung Financial's current Price To Operating Cash Flows Ratio is estimated to increase to 8.94, while Price Earnings To Growth Ratio is forecasted to increase to (0.65). Please specify Chemung Financial's target price for which you would like Chemung Financial odds to be computed.

Chemung Financial Target Price Odds to finish over 57.16

The tendency of Chemung Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 57.16  or more in 90 days
 50.05 90 days 57.16 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Chemung Financial to move over $ 57.16  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Chemung Financial Corp probability density function shows the probability of Chemung Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Chemung Financial Corp price to stay between its current price of $ 50.05  and $ 57.16  at the end of the 90-day period is about 41.73 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.29 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Chemung Financial will likely underperform. Additionally Chemung Financial Corp has an alpha of 0.0201, implying that it can generate a 0.0201 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Chemung Financial Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Chemung Financial

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Chemung Financial Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
48.5550.0451.53
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
44.7946.2755.06
Details
2 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
38.5242.3346.99
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
1.211.221.24
Details

Chemung Financial Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Chemung Financial is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Chemung Financial's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Chemung Financial Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Chemung Financial within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.02
β
Beta against Dow Jones1.29
σ
Overall volatility
2.65
Ir
Information ratio 0.02

Chemung Financial Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Chemung Financial for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Chemung Financial Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Piper Sandler Initiates Coverage on Chemung Financial

Chemung Financial Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Chemung Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Chemung Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Chemung Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding4.7 M
Cash And Short Term Investments630.2 M

Chemung Financial Technical Analysis

Chemung Financial's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Chemung Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Chemung Financial Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Chemung Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Chemung Financial Predictive Forecast Models

Chemung Financial's time-series forecasting models is one of many Chemung Financial's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Chemung Financial's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Chemung Financial Corp

Checking the ongoing alerts about Chemung Financial for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Chemung Financial Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Piper Sandler Initiates Coverage on Chemung Financial
When determining whether Chemung Financial Corp is a strong investment it is important to analyze Chemung Financial's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Chemung Financial's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Chemung Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Chemung Financial. If investors know Chemung will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Chemung Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.26)
Dividend Share
1.24
Earnings Share
4.52
Revenue Per Share
19.63
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.06)
The market value of Chemung Financial Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Chemung that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Chemung Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Chemung Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Chemung Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Chemung Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Chemung Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Chemung Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Chemung Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.