Commerce Bancshares (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 45.03
| CB5 Stock | EUR 60.00 1.00 1.64% |
Commerce |
Commerce Bancshares Target Price Odds to finish below 45.03
The tendency of Commerce Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 45.03 or more in 90 days |
| 60.00 | 90 days | 45.03 | roughly 2.07 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Commerce Bancshares to drop to € 45.03 or more in 90 days from now is roughly 2.07 (This Commerce Bancshares probability density function shows the probability of Commerce Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Commerce Bancshares price to stay between € 45.03 and its current price of €60.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 58.81 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.41 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Commerce Bancshares will likely underperform. Additionally Commerce Bancshares has an alpha of 0.1444, implying that it can generate a 0.14 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Commerce Bancshares Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Commerce Bancshares
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Commerce Bancshares. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Commerce Bancshares Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Commerce Bancshares is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Commerce Bancshares' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Commerce Bancshares, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Commerce Bancshares within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.14 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.41 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 6.47 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.06 |
Commerce Bancshares Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Commerce Bancshares for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Commerce Bancshares can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| About 70.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Commerce Bancshares Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Commerce Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Commerce Bancshares' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Commerce Bancshares' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 125.3 M |
Commerce Bancshares Technical Analysis
Commerce Bancshares' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Commerce Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Commerce Bancshares. In general, you should focus on analyzing Commerce Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Commerce Bancshares Predictive Forecast Models
Commerce Bancshares' time-series forecasting models is one of many Commerce Bancshares' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Commerce Bancshares' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Commerce Bancshares
Checking the ongoing alerts about Commerce Bancshares for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Commerce Bancshares help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| About 70.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Commerce Stock
When determining whether Commerce Bancshares offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Commerce Bancshares' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Commerce Bancshares Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Commerce Bancshares Stock:Check out Commerce Bancshares Backtesting, Commerce Bancshares Valuation, Commerce Bancshares Correlation, Commerce Bancshares Hype Analysis, Commerce Bancshares Volatility, Commerce Bancshares History as well as Commerce Bancshares Performance. For more detail on how to invest in Commerce Stock please use our How to Invest in Commerce Bancshares guide.You can also try the Portfolio Optimization module to compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk.