Commerce Bancshares (Germany) Market Value
| CB5 Stock | EUR 56.00 1.50 2.75% |
| Symbol | Commerce |
Commerce Bancshares 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Commerce Bancshares' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Commerce Bancshares.
| 12/15/2024 |
| 03/15/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Commerce Bancshares on December 15, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Commerce Bancshares or generate 0.0% return on investment in Commerce Bancshares over 90 days. Commerce Bancshares is related to or competes with THAI BEVERAGE, GOLDQUEST MINING, Tsingtao Brewery, PARKEN Sport, and Boston Beer. Commerce Bancshares, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Commerce Bank that provides retail, mortgage banking,... More
Commerce Bancshares Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Commerce Bancshares' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Commerce Bancshares upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.08) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 6.47 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.52) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.37 |
Commerce Bancshares Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Commerce Bancshares' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Commerce Bancshares' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Commerce Bancshares historical prices to predict the future Commerce Bancshares' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.13) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.20) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.05) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.95) |
Commerce Bancshares Backtested Returns
Commerce Bancshares secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.14, which signifies that the company had a -0.14 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Commerce Bancshares exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Commerce Bancshares' Mean Deviation of 1.13, standard deviation of 1.45, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.13) to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.24, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Commerce Bancshares' returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Commerce Bancshares is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Commerce Bancshares has a negative expected return of -0.2%. Please make sure to confirm Commerce Bancshares' treynor ratio, value at risk, and the relationship between the total risk alpha and maximum drawdown , to decide if Commerce Bancshares performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.56 |
Good reverse predictability
Commerce Bancshares has good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Commerce Bancshares time series from 15th of December 2024 to 29th of January 2025 and 29th of January 2025 to 15th of March 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Commerce Bancshares price movement. The serial correlation of -0.56 indicates that roughly 56.0% of current Commerce Bancshares price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.56 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.49 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 4.36 |
Commerce Bancshares lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Commerce Bancshares stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Commerce Bancshares' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Commerce Bancshares returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Commerce Bancshares has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Commerce Bancshares regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Commerce Bancshares stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Commerce Bancshares stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Commerce Bancshares stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Commerce Bancshares Lagged Returns
When evaluating Commerce Bancshares' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Commerce Bancshares stock have on its future price. Commerce Bancshares autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Commerce Bancshares autocorrelation shows the relationship between Commerce Bancshares stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Commerce Bancshares.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Commerce Stock
When determining whether Commerce Bancshares offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Commerce Bancshares' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Commerce Bancshares Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Commerce Bancshares Stock:Check out Commerce Bancshares Correlation, Commerce Bancshares Volatility and Commerce Bancshares Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Commerce Bancshares. For more detail on how to invest in Commerce Stock please use our How to Invest in Commerce Bancshares guide.You can also try the Portfolio Diagnostics module to use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings.
Commerce Bancshares technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.