Builders Firstsource Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 168.52
| BLDR Stock | USD 148.37 0.45 0.30% |
Builders |
Builders FirstSource Target Price Odds to finish below 168.52
The tendency of Builders Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 168.52 after 90 days |
| 148.37 | 90 days | 168.52 | about 17.67 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Builders FirstSource to stay under $ 168.52 after 90 days from now is about 17.67 (This Builders FirstSource probability density function shows the probability of Builders Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Builders FirstSource price to stay between its current price of $ 148.37 and $ 168.52 at the end of the 90-day period is about 17.15 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Builders FirstSource has a beta of 0.93 suggesting Builders FirstSource market returns are sensible to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Builders FirstSource is expected to follow. Additionally Builders FirstSource has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Builders FirstSource Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Builders FirstSource
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Builders FirstSource. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Builders FirstSource's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Builders FirstSource Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Builders FirstSource is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Builders FirstSource's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Builders FirstSource, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Builders FirstSource within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.43 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.93 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 12.83 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.2 |
Builders FirstSource Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Builders FirstSource for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Builders FirstSource can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Builders FirstSource generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Builders FirstSource is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Builders FirstSource has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Builders FirstSource Announces Definitive Agreement to Acquire Alpine Lumber |
Builders FirstSource Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Builders Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Builders FirstSource's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Builders FirstSource's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 129 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 66.2 M |
Builders FirstSource Technical Analysis
Builders FirstSource's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Builders Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Builders FirstSource. In general, you should focus on analyzing Builders Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Builders FirstSource Predictive Forecast Models
Builders FirstSource's time-series forecasting models is one of many Builders FirstSource's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Builders FirstSource's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Builders FirstSource
Checking the ongoing alerts about Builders FirstSource for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Builders FirstSource help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Builders FirstSource generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Builders FirstSource is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Builders FirstSource has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Builders FirstSource Announces Definitive Agreement to Acquire Alpine Lumber |
Additional Tools for Builders Stock Analysis
When running Builders FirstSource's price analysis, check to measure Builders FirstSource's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Builders FirstSource is operating at the current time. Most of Builders FirstSource's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Builders FirstSource's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Builders FirstSource's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Builders FirstSource to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.