Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 4.62
| AVAH Stock | USD 4.57 0.09 1.93% |
Aveanna |
Aveanna Healthcare Target Price Odds to finish below 4.62
The tendency of Aveanna Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 4.62 after 90 days |
| 4.57 | 90 days | 4.62 | about 14.29 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Aveanna Healthcare to stay under $ 4.62 after 90 days from now is about 14.29 (This Aveanna Healthcare Holdings probability density function shows the probability of Aveanna Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Aveanna Healthcare price to stay between its current price of $ 4.57 and $ 4.62 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 2.27 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Aveanna Healthcare has a beta of 0.96. This suggests Aveanna Healthcare Holdings market returns are responsive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Aveanna Healthcare is expected to follow. Additionally Aveanna Healthcare Holdings has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Aveanna Healthcare Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Aveanna Healthcare
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aveanna Healthcare. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Aveanna Healthcare Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Aveanna Healthcare is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Aveanna Healthcare's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Aveanna Healthcare Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Aveanna Healthcare within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.13 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.96 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.47 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.04 |
Aveanna Healthcare Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Aveanna Healthcare for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Aveanna Healthcare can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Aveanna Healthcare had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Aveanna Healthcare has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Aveanna Healthcare Holdings currently holds 1.5 B in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 7.17, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Aveanna Healthcare has a current ratio of 0.79, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Aveanna Healthcare's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 1.9 B. Net Loss for the year was (134.52 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 553.23 M. | |
| Over 90.0% of Aveanna Healthcare shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from investing.com: Aveanna Healthcares SWOT analysis home care stock shows resilience amid challenges |
Aveanna Healthcare Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Aveanna Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Aveanna Healthcare's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aveanna Healthcare's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 190 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 43.9 M |
Aveanna Healthcare Technical Analysis
Aveanna Healthcare's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Aveanna Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Aveanna Healthcare Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing Aveanna Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Aveanna Healthcare Predictive Forecast Models
Aveanna Healthcare's time-series forecasting models is one of many Aveanna Healthcare's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Aveanna Healthcare's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.