Academy Sports Outdoors Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 43.26
| ASO Stock | USD 55.64 0.05 0.09% |
Academy |
Academy Sports Target Price Odds to finish below 43.26
The tendency of Academy Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 43.26 or more in 90 days |
| 55.64 | 90 days | 43.26 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Academy Sports to drop to $ 43.26 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Academy Sports Outdoors probability density function shows the probability of Academy Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Academy Sports Outdoors price to stay between $ 43.26 and its current price of $55.64 at the end of the 90-day period is about 74.51 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Academy Sports has a beta of 0.18. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Academy Sports average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Academy Sports Outdoors will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Academy Sports Outdoors has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Academy Sports Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Academy Sports
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Academy Sports Outdoors. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Academy Sports' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Academy Sports Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Academy Sports is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Academy Sports' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Academy Sports Outdoors, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Academy Sports within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.15 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.18 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.89 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.08 |
Academy Sports Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Academy Sports for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Academy Sports Outdoors can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Academy Sports generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Academy Sports has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 97.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from cnbc.com: Here are Wednesdays biggest analyst calls Nvidia, Apple, Tesla, Visa, Disney, Microsoft, Expedia, Ollies more |
Academy Sports Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Academy Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Academy Sports' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Academy Sports' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 77.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 347.9 M |
Academy Sports Technical Analysis
Academy Sports' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Academy Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Academy Sports Outdoors. In general, you should focus on analyzing Academy Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Academy Sports Predictive Forecast Models
Academy Sports' time-series forecasting models is one of many Academy Sports' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Academy Sports' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Academy Sports Outdoors
Checking the ongoing alerts about Academy Sports for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Academy Sports Outdoors help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Academy Sports generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Academy Sports has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 97.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from cnbc.com: Here are Wednesdays biggest analyst calls Nvidia, Apple, Tesla, Visa, Disney, Microsoft, Expedia, Ollies more |
Check out Academy Sports Backtesting, Academy Sports Valuation, Academy Sports Correlation, Academy Sports Hype Analysis, Academy Sports Volatility, Academy Sports History as well as Academy Sports Performance. You can also try the Portfolio Optimization module to compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk.
Is Other Specialty Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Academy Sports. If investors know Academy will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Academy Sports listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.03) | Earnings Share 6.05 | Revenue Per Share 82.956 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.02) | Return On Assets 0.0829 |
The market value of Academy Sports Outdoors is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Academy that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Academy Sports' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Academy Sports' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Academy Sports' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Academy Sports' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Academy Sports' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Academy Sports is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Academy Sports' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.