ASA METROPOLIS (Brazil) Probability of Future Fund Price Finishing Over 52.99
| ASMT11 Fund | 39.00 0.47 1.19% |
ASA |
ASA METROPOLIS Target Price Odds to finish over 52.99
The tendency of ASA Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 52.99 or more in 90 days |
| 39.00 | 90 days | 52.99 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of ASA METROPOLIS to move over 52.99 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This ASA METROPOLIS FUNDO probability density function shows the probability of ASA Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of ASA METROPOLIS FUNDO price to stay between its current price of 39.00 and 52.99 at the end of the 90-day period is about 15.74 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon ASA METROPOLIS FUNDO has a beta of -0.0511. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding ASA METROPOLIS are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, ASA METROPOLIS FUNDO is likely to outperform the market. Additionally ASA METROPOLIS FUNDO has an alpha of 0.0472, implying that it can generate a 0.0472 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). ASA METROPOLIS Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for ASA METROPOLIS
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ASA METROPOLIS FUNDO. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.ASA METROPOLIS Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. ASA METROPOLIS is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the ASA METROPOLIS's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold ASA METROPOLIS FUNDO, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of ASA METROPOLIS within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.05 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.05 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.88 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.01 |
ASA METROPOLIS Technical Analysis
ASA METROPOLIS's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. ASA Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of ASA METROPOLIS FUNDO. In general, you should focus on analyzing ASA Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
ASA METROPOLIS Predictive Forecast Models
ASA METROPOLIS's time-series forecasting models is one of many ASA METROPOLIS's fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary ASA METROPOLIS's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards ASA METROPOLIS in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, ASA METROPOLIS's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from ASA METROPOLIS options trading.
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