ASA METROPOLIS Fund Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

ASMT11 Fund   36.50  2.00  5.80%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ASA METROPOLIS FUNDO on the next trading day is expected to be 36.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.76 and the sum of the absolute errors of 45.56. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast ASA METROPOLIS's fund prices and determine the direction of ASA METROPOLIS FUNDO's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading.
  
ASA METROPOLIS simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for ASA METROPOLIS FUNDO are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as ASA METROPOLIS FUNDO prices get older.

ASA METROPOLIS Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ASA METROPOLIS FUNDO on the next trading day is expected to be 36.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.76, mean absolute percentage error of 1.62, and the sum of the absolute errors of 45.56.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ASA Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ASA METROPOLIS's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

ASA METROPOLIS Fund Forecast Pattern

ASA METROPOLIS Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting ASA METROPOLIS's Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ASA METROPOLIS's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 32.21 and 40.79, respectively. We have considered ASA METROPOLIS's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
36.50
36.50
Expected Value
40.79
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ASA METROPOLIS fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ASA METROPOLIS fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.7558
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0943
MADMean absolute deviation0.7593
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0244
SAESum of the absolute errors45.56
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting ASA METROPOLIS FUNDO forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent ASA METROPOLIS observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for ASA METROPOLIS

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ASA METROPOLIS FUNDO. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Other Forecasting Options for ASA METROPOLIS

For every potential investor in ASA, whether a beginner or expert, ASA METROPOLIS's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ASA Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ASA. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ASA METROPOLIS's price trends.

ASA METROPOLIS Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ASA METROPOLIS fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ASA METROPOLIS could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ASA METROPOLIS by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

ASA METROPOLIS FUNDO Technical and Predictive Analytics

The fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of ASA METROPOLIS's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of ASA METROPOLIS's current price.

ASA METROPOLIS Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ASA METROPOLIS fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ASA METROPOLIS shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying ASA METROPOLIS fund market strength indicators, traders can identify ASA METROPOLIS FUNDO entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

ASA METROPOLIS Risk Indicators

The analysis of ASA METROPOLIS's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ASA METROPOLIS's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting asa fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
Commodity Channel
Use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum
Stocks Directory
Find actively traded stocks across global markets
Money Flow Index
Determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators
My Watchlist Analysis
Analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like