Amerisafe Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 64.85
| AMSF Stock | USD 51.54 0.19 0.37% |
AMERISAFE |
AMERISAFE Target Price Odds to finish over 64.85
The tendency of AMERISAFE Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 64.85 or more in 90 days |
| 51.54 | 90 days | 64.85 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of AMERISAFE to move over $ 64.85 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This AMERISAFE probability density function shows the probability of AMERISAFE Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of AMERISAFE price to stay between its current price of $ 51.54 and $ 64.85 at the end of the 90-day period is about 71.76 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days AMERISAFE has a beta of 0.19. This suggests as returns on the market go up, AMERISAFE average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding AMERISAFE will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally AMERISAFE has an alpha of 0.1177, implying that it can generate a 0.12 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). AMERISAFE Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for AMERISAFE
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AMERISAFE. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of AMERISAFE's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
AMERISAFE Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. AMERISAFE is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the AMERISAFE's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold AMERISAFE, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of AMERISAFE within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.12 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.19 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.71 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.06 |
AMERISAFE Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of AMERISAFE for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for AMERISAFE can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Over 98.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| On 13th of December 2024 AMERISAFE paid $ 3.37 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Do Its Financials Have Any Role To Play In Driving AMERISAFE, Inc.s Stock Up Recently |
AMERISAFE Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of AMERISAFE Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential AMERISAFE's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AMERISAFE's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 19.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 355.7 M |
AMERISAFE Technical Analysis
AMERISAFE's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. AMERISAFE Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of AMERISAFE. In general, you should focus on analyzing AMERISAFE Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
AMERISAFE Predictive Forecast Models
AMERISAFE's time-series forecasting models is one of many AMERISAFE's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary AMERISAFE's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.