Alerus Financial Corp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 10.53
| ALRS Stock | USD 19.99 0.17 0.86% |
Alerus |
Alerus Financial Target Price Odds to finish below 10.53
The tendency of Alerus Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 10.53 or more in 90 days |
| 19.99 | 90 days | 10.53 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Alerus Financial to drop to $ 10.53 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Alerus Financial Corp probability density function shows the probability of Alerus Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Alerus Financial Corp price to stay between $ 10.53 and its current price of $19.99 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.56 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.63 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Alerus Financial will likely underperform. Additionally Alerus Financial Corp has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Alerus Financial Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Alerus Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alerus Financial Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Alerus Financial Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Alerus Financial is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Alerus Financial's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Alerus Financial Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Alerus Financial within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.21 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.63 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.04 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.08 |
Alerus Financial Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Alerus Financial for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Alerus Financial Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Alerus Financial generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Latest headline from investing.com: Alerus Financial Corporations SWOT analysis stock expansion through HMN acquisition |
Alerus Financial Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Alerus Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Alerus Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alerus Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 20.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 28.9 M |
Alerus Financial Technical Analysis
Alerus Financial's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Alerus Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Alerus Financial Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Alerus Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Alerus Financial Predictive Forecast Models
Alerus Financial's time-series forecasting models is one of many Alerus Financial's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Alerus Financial's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Alerus Financial Corp
Checking the ongoing alerts about Alerus Financial for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Alerus Financial Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Alerus Financial generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Latest headline from investing.com: Alerus Financial Corporations SWOT analysis stock expansion through HMN acquisition |
Additional Tools for Alerus Stock Analysis
When running Alerus Financial's price analysis, check to measure Alerus Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alerus Financial is operating at the current time. Most of Alerus Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alerus Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alerus Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alerus Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.