American Woodmark (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 76.95
| AHQ Stock | EUR 78.00 0.00 0.00% |
American |
American Woodmark Target Price Odds to finish below 76.95
The tendency of American Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 76.95 or more in 90 days |
| 78.00 | 90 days | 76.95 | roughly 2.94 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of American Woodmark to drop to € 76.95 or more in 90 days from now is roughly 2.94 (This American Woodmark probability density function shows the probability of American Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of American Woodmark price to stay between € 76.95 and its current price of €78.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.91 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon American Woodmark has a beta of 0.12. This suggests as returns on the market go up, American Woodmark average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding American Woodmark will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally American Woodmark has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. American Woodmark Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for American Woodmark
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Woodmark. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.American Woodmark Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. American Woodmark is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the American Woodmark's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold American Woodmark, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of American Woodmark within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.09 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.12 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 4.59 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.05 |
American Woodmark Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of American Woodmark for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for American Woodmark can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| American Woodmark generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| American Woodmark has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| The company reported the revenue of 1.86 B. Net Loss for the year was (29.72 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 226.44 M. | |
| Over 93.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
American Woodmark Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of American Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential American Woodmark's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. American Woodmark's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 16.6 M |
American Woodmark Technical Analysis
American Woodmark's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. American Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of American Woodmark. In general, you should focus on analyzing American Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
American Woodmark Predictive Forecast Models
American Woodmark's time-series forecasting models is one of many American Woodmark's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary American Woodmark's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about American Woodmark
Checking the ongoing alerts about American Woodmark for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for American Woodmark help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| American Woodmark generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| American Woodmark has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| The company reported the revenue of 1.86 B. Net Loss for the year was (29.72 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 226.44 M. | |
| Over 93.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in American Stock
When determining whether American Woodmark is a strong investment it is important to analyze American Woodmark's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact American Woodmark's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding American Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out American Woodmark Backtesting, American Woodmark Valuation, American Woodmark Correlation, American Woodmark Hype Analysis, American Woodmark Volatility, American Woodmark History as well as American Woodmark Performance. For more detail on how to invest in American Stock please use our How to Invest in American Woodmark guide.You can also try the Options Analysis module to analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios.