Alamos Gold Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 11.87
| AGI Stock | USD 18.35 0.08 0.43% |
Alamos |
Alamos Gold Target Price Odds to finish below 11.87
The tendency of Alamos Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 11.87 or more in 90 days |
| 18.35 | 90 days | 11.87 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Alamos Gold to drop to $ 11.87 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Alamos Gold probability density function shows the probability of Alamos Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Alamos Gold price to stay between $ 11.87 and its current price of $18.35 at the end of the 90-day period is about 13.43 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Alamos Gold has a beta of 0.041. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Alamos Gold average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Alamos Gold will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Alamos Gold has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Alamos Gold Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Alamos Gold
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alamos Gold. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Alamos Gold Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Alamos Gold is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Alamos Gold's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Alamos Gold, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Alamos Gold within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.17 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.04 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.95 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.09 |
Alamos Gold Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Alamos Gold for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Alamos Gold can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Alamos Gold generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Alamos Gold is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Alamos Gold has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 70.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| On 19th of December 2024 Alamos Gold paid $ 0.025 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Alamos Gold Inc Announces New Share Buyback Program |
Alamos Gold Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Alamos Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Alamos Gold's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alamos Gold's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 398.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 237.8 M |
Alamos Gold Technical Analysis
Alamos Gold's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Alamos Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Alamos Gold. In general, you should focus on analyzing Alamos Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Alamos Gold Predictive Forecast Models
Alamos Gold's time-series forecasting models is one of many Alamos Gold's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Alamos Gold's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Alamos Gold
Checking the ongoing alerts about Alamos Gold for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Alamos Gold help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Alamos Gold generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Alamos Gold is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Alamos Gold has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 70.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| On 19th of December 2024 Alamos Gold paid $ 0.025 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Alamos Gold Inc Announces New Share Buyback Program |
Check out Alamos Gold Backtesting, Alamos Gold Valuation, Alamos Gold Correlation, Alamos Gold Hype Analysis, Alamos Gold Volatility, Alamos Gold History as well as Alamos Gold Performance. For more detail on how to invest in Alamos Stock please use our How to Invest in Alamos Gold guide.You can also try the Portfolio File Import module to quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format.
Is Metals & Mining space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Alamos Gold. If investors know Alamos will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Alamos Gold listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.011 | Dividend Share 0.1 | Earnings Share 0.6 | Revenue Per Share 3.047 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.409 |
The market value of Alamos Gold is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Alamos that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Alamos Gold's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Alamos Gold's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Alamos Gold's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Alamos Gold's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alamos Gold's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Alamos Gold is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alamos Gold's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.