Aflac Incorporated Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 107.75
| AFL Stock | USD 103.38 0.28 0.27% |
Aflac |
Aflac Incorporated Target Price Odds to finish below 107.75
The tendency of Aflac Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 107.75 after 90 days |
| 103.38 | 90 days | 107.75 | about 37.06 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Aflac Incorporated to stay under $ 107.75 after 90 days from now is about 37.06 (This Aflac Incorporated probability density function shows the probability of Aflac Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Aflac Incorporated price to stay between its current price of $ 103.38 and $ 107.75 at the end of the 90-day period is about 29.86 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Aflac Incorporated has a beta of 0.0039. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Aflac Incorporated average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Aflac Incorporated will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Aflac Incorporated has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Aflac Incorporated Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Aflac Incorporated
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aflac Incorporated. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Aflac Incorporated Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Aflac Incorporated is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Aflac Incorporated's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Aflac Incorporated, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Aflac Incorporated within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.08 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.91 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.08 |
Aflac Incorporated Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Aflac Incorporated for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Aflac Incorporated can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Aflac Incorporated generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Aflac Incorporated has 7.36 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.45, which is OK given its current industry classification. Aflac Incorporated has a current ratio of 0.74, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for Aflac to invest in growth at high rates of return. | |
| About 61.0% of Aflac Incorporated shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| On 2nd of December 2024 Aflac Incorporated paid $ 0.5 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Aflac shareholders have earned a 17 percent CAGR over the last five years |
Aflac Incorporated Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Aflac Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Aflac Incorporated's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aflac Incorporated's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 598.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 28.2 B |
Aflac Incorporated Technical Analysis
Aflac Incorporated's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Aflac Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Aflac Incorporated. In general, you should focus on analyzing Aflac Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Aflac Incorporated Predictive Forecast Models
Aflac Incorporated's time-series forecasting models is one of many Aflac Incorporated's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Aflac Incorporated's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Aflac Incorporated
Checking the ongoing alerts about Aflac Incorporated for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Aflac Incorporated help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Aflac Incorporated generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Aflac Incorporated has 7.36 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.45, which is OK given its current industry classification. Aflac Incorporated has a current ratio of 0.74, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for Aflac to invest in growth at high rates of return. | |
| About 61.0% of Aflac Incorporated shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| On 2nd of December 2024 Aflac Incorporated paid $ 0.5 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Aflac shareholders have earned a 17 percent CAGR over the last five years |
Check out Aflac Incorporated Backtesting, Aflac Incorporated Valuation, Aflac Incorporated Correlation, Aflac Incorporated Hype Analysis, Aflac Incorporated Volatility, Aflac Incorporated History as well as Aflac Incorporated Performance. For more information on how to buy Aflac Stock please use our How to buy in Aflac Stock guide.You can also try the Investing Opportunities module to build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences.
Is Life & Health Insurance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Aflac Incorporated. If investors know Aflac will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Aflac Incorporated listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.144 | Dividend Share 1.92 | Earnings Share 6.73 | Revenue Per Share 30.368 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.40) |
The market value of Aflac Incorporated is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Aflac that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Aflac Incorporated's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Aflac Incorporated's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Aflac Incorporated's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Aflac Incorporated's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Aflac Incorporated's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Aflac Incorporated is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Aflac Incorporated's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.