Adma Biologics Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 3.26
| ADMA Stock | USD 17.40 0.50 2.79% |
ADMA |
ADMA Biologics Target Price Odds to finish below 3.26
The tendency of ADMA Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 3.26 or more in 90 days |
| 17.40 | 90 days | 3.26 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of ADMA Biologics to drop to $ 3.26 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This ADMA Biologics probability density function shows the probability of ADMA Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of ADMA Biologics price to stay between $ 3.26 and its current price of $17.4 at the end of the 90-day period is about 19.14 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.57 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, ADMA Biologics will likely underperform. Additionally ADMA Biologics has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. ADMA Biologics Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for ADMA Biologics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ADMA Biologics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.ADMA Biologics Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. ADMA Biologics is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the ADMA Biologics' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold ADMA Biologics, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of ADMA Biologics within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.14 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.57 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.87 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.03 |
ADMA Biologics Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of ADMA Biologics for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for ADMA Biologics can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| ADMA Biologics generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| ADMA Biologics has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 258.21 M. Net Loss for the year was (28.24 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 35.27 M. | |
| ADMA Biologics has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 91.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: ADMA Biologics Announces Partial Paydown of Senior Term Loan Credit Facility |
ADMA Biologics Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of ADMA Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential ADMA Biologics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ADMA Biologics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 224 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 51.4 M |
ADMA Biologics Technical Analysis
ADMA Biologics' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. ADMA Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of ADMA Biologics. In general, you should focus on analyzing ADMA Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
ADMA Biologics Predictive Forecast Models
ADMA Biologics' time-series forecasting models is one of many ADMA Biologics' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary ADMA Biologics' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about ADMA Biologics
Checking the ongoing alerts about ADMA Biologics for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for ADMA Biologics help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| ADMA Biologics generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| ADMA Biologics has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 258.21 M. Net Loss for the year was (28.24 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 35.27 M. | |
| ADMA Biologics has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 91.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: ADMA Biologics Announces Partial Paydown of Senior Term Loan Credit Facility |
Check out ADMA Biologics Backtesting, ADMA Biologics Valuation, ADMA Biologics Correlation, ADMA Biologics Hype Analysis, ADMA Biologics Volatility, ADMA Biologics History as well as ADMA Biologics Performance. For information on how to trade ADMA Stock refer to our How to Trade ADMA Stock guide.You can also try the Odds Of Bankruptcy module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of ADMA Biologics. If investors know ADMA will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about ADMA Biologics listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 14 | Earnings Share 0.27 | Revenue Per Share 1.661 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.781 | Return On Assets 0.1989 |
The market value of ADMA Biologics is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ADMA that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ADMA Biologics' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ADMA Biologics' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because ADMA Biologics' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ADMA Biologics' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between ADMA Biologics' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if ADMA Biologics is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ADMA Biologics' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.