WATSCO INC Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| WC30 Stock | EUR 456.00 2.00 0.44% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of WATSCO INC B on the next trading day is expected to be 456.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.40 and the sum of the absolute errors of 204.10. WATSCO Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of WATSCO INC's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
WATSCO |
WATSCO INC Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 2nd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of WATSCO INC B on the next trading day is expected to be 456.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.40, mean absolute percentage error of 52.32, and the sum of the absolute errors of 204.10.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict WATSCO Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that WATSCO INC's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
WATSCO INC Stock Forecast Pattern
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WATSCO INC Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting WATSCO INC's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. WATSCO INC's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 454.63 and 458.01, respectively. We have considered WATSCO INC's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of WATSCO INC stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent WATSCO INC stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.23 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.9506 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.4016 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0076 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 204.0986 |
Predictive Modules for WATSCO INC
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as WATSCO INC B. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for WATSCO INC
For every potential investor in WATSCO, whether a beginner or expert, WATSCO INC's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. WATSCO Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in WATSCO. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying WATSCO INC's price trends.WATSCO INC Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with WATSCO INC stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of WATSCO INC could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing WATSCO INC by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
WATSCO INC B Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of WATSCO INC's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of WATSCO INC's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
WATSCO INC Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how WATSCO INC stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading WATSCO INC shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying WATSCO INC stock market strength indicators, traders can identify WATSCO INC B entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
WATSCO INC Risk Indicators
The analysis of WATSCO INC's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in WATSCO INC's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting watsco stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7896 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.6975 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.61 | |||
| Variance | 2.58 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.11 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.4865 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.70) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Other Information on Investing in WATSCO Stock
WATSCO INC financial ratios help investors to determine whether WATSCO Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in WATSCO with respect to the benefits of owning WATSCO INC security.