Vista Gold Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| VGZ Stock | CAD 0.85 0.01 1.19% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Vista Gold on the next trading day is expected to be 0.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.45. Vista Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Vista Gold's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Vista Gold's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Vista Gold fundamentals over time.
Vista |
Vista Gold Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 3rd of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Vista Gold on the next trading day is expected to be 0.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0009, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.45.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Vista Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Vista Gold's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Vista Gold Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Vista Gold | Vista Gold Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Vista Gold Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Vista Gold's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Vista Gold's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 4.37, respectively. We have considered Vista Gold's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Vista Gold stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Vista Gold stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 111.1164 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0238 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0261 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.4504 |
Predictive Modules for Vista Gold
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vista Gold. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Vista Gold
For every potential investor in Vista, whether a beginner or expert, Vista Gold's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Vista Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Vista. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Vista Gold's price trends.Vista Gold Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Vista Gold stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Vista Gold could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Vista Gold by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Vista Gold Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Vista Gold's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Vista Gold's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Vista Gold Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Vista Gold stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Vista Gold shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Vista Gold stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Vista Gold entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 0.85 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 0.85 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.005 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.01 |
Vista Gold Risk Indicators
The analysis of Vista Gold's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Vista Gold's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting vista stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.71 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.59 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.57 | |||
| Variance | 12.76 | |||
| Downside Variance | 18.08 | |||
| Semi Variance | 12.87 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.03) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Vista Gold
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Vista Gold position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Vista Gold will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Vista Stock
Moving against Vista Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Vista Gold could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Vista Gold when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Vista Gold - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Vista Gold to buy it.
The correlation of Vista Gold is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Vista Gold moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Vista Gold moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Vista Gold can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Vista Gold to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Vista Stock, please use our How to Invest in Vista Gold guide.You can also try the Content Syndication module to quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal.