532457BZ0 Forecast - Simple Moving Average

532457BZ0   59.43  5.68  10.57%   
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of ELI LILLY AND on the next trading day is expected to be 59.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.78 and the sum of the absolute errors of 46.84. 532457BZ0 Bond Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast 532457BZ0 stock prices and determine the direction of ELI LILLY AND's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of 532457BZ0's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A two period moving average forecast for 532457BZ0 is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.

532457BZ0 Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 24th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of ELI LILLY AND on the next trading day is expected to be 59.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.78, mean absolute percentage error of 1.36, and the sum of the absolute errors of 46.84.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict 532457BZ0 Bond prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that 532457BZ0's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

532457BZ0 Bond Forecast Pattern

Backtest 532457BZ0532457BZ0 Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

532457BZ0 Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting 532457BZ0's Bond value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. 532457BZ0's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 57.50 and 61.36, respectively. We have considered 532457BZ0's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
59.43
59.43
Expected Value
61.36
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of 532457BZ0 bond data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent 532457BZ0 bond, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.5779
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0528
MADMean absolute deviation0.7807
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0135
SAESum of the absolute errors46.84
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of ELI LILLY AND price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of 532457BZ0. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future

Predictive Modules for 532457BZ0

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ELI LILLY AND. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
57.5059.4361.36
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
47.3249.2565.37
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as 532457BZ0. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against 532457BZ0's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, 532457BZ0's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in ELI LILLY AND.

Other Forecasting Options for 532457BZ0

For every potential investor in 532457BZ0, whether a beginner or expert, 532457BZ0's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. 532457BZ0 Bond price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in 532457BZ0. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying 532457BZ0's price trends.

532457BZ0 Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with 532457BZ0 bond to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of 532457BZ0 could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing 532457BZ0 by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

ELI LILLY AND Technical and Predictive Analytics

The bond market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of 532457BZ0's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of 532457BZ0's current price.

532457BZ0 Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how 532457BZ0 bond reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading 532457BZ0 shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying 532457BZ0 bond market strength indicators, traders can identify ELI LILLY AND entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

532457BZ0 Risk Indicators

The analysis of 532457BZ0's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in 532457BZ0's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting 532457bz0 bond prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios. One of the essential factors to consider when estimating the risk of default for a bond instrument is its duration, which is the bond's price sensitivity to changes in interest rates. The duration of ELI LILLY AND bond is primarily affected by its yield, coupon rate, and time to maturity. The duration of a bond will be higher the lower its coupon, lower its yield, and longer the time left to maturity.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in 532457BZ0 Bond

532457BZ0 financial ratios help investors to determine whether 532457BZ0 Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in 532457BZ0 with respect to the benefits of owning 532457BZ0 security.