UPM-Kymmene Oyj Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction

UPMMY Stock  USD 27.34  0.23  0.85%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of UPM Kymmene Oyj on the next trading day is expected to be 27.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37 and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.70. UPM-Kymmene Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A naive forecasting model for UPM-Kymmene Oyj is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of UPM Kymmene Oyj value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

UPM-Kymmene Oyj Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 5th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of UPM Kymmene Oyj on the next trading day is expected to be 27.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37, mean absolute percentage error of 0.22, and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.70.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict UPM-Kymmene Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that UPM-Kymmene Oyj's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

UPM-Kymmene Oyj Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

Backtest UPM-Kymmene OyjUPM-Kymmene Oyj Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

UPM-Kymmene Oyj Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting UPM-Kymmene Oyj's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. UPM-Kymmene Oyj's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 25.76 and 29.01, respectively. We have considered UPM-Kymmene Oyj's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
27.34
27.38
Expected Value
29.01
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of UPM-Kymmene Oyj pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent UPM-Kymmene Oyj pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.5783
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.3722
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0125
SAESum of the absolute errors22.7017
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of UPM Kymmene Oyj. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict UPM-Kymmene Oyj. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for UPM-Kymmene Oyj

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as UPM Kymmene Oyj. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
25.4927.1128.73
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
21.3022.9229.82
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
26.6427.0327.42
Details

Other Forecasting Options for UPM-Kymmene Oyj

For every potential investor in UPM-Kymmene, whether a beginner or expert, UPM-Kymmene Oyj's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. UPM-Kymmene Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in UPM-Kymmene. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying UPM-Kymmene Oyj's price trends.

UPM-Kymmene Oyj Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with UPM-Kymmene Oyj pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of UPM-Kymmene Oyj could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing UPM-Kymmene Oyj by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

UPM Kymmene Oyj Technical and Predictive Analytics

The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of UPM-Kymmene Oyj's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of UPM-Kymmene Oyj's current price.

UPM-Kymmene Oyj Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how UPM-Kymmene Oyj pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading UPM-Kymmene Oyj shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying UPM-Kymmene Oyj pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify UPM Kymmene Oyj entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

UPM-Kymmene Oyj Risk Indicators

The analysis of UPM-Kymmene Oyj's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in UPM-Kymmene Oyj's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting upm-kymmene pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Tools for UPM-Kymmene Pink Sheet Analysis

When running UPM-Kymmene Oyj's price analysis, check to measure UPM-Kymmene Oyj's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy UPM-Kymmene Oyj is operating at the current time. Most of UPM-Kymmene Oyj's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of UPM-Kymmene Oyj's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move UPM-Kymmene Oyj's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of UPM-Kymmene Oyj to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.