Truworths International Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

A naive forecasting model for Truworths International is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Truworths International value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Truworths International Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Truworths International on the next trading day is expected to be 9,748 with a mean absolute deviation of 193.79, mean absolute percentage error of 58,047, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11,821.

Truworths International Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Truworths International

Truworths International Price Prediction

Buy or Sell Advice

Truworths International Forecasted Value

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Truworths International stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Truworths International stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Truworths International. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Truworths International. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Truworths International

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Truworths International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 10,396 10,398 10,400 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 10,292 10,294 11,438 Details

Other Forecasting Options for Truworths International

For every potential investor in Truworths, whether a beginner or expert, Truworths International's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Truworths Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Truworths. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Truworths International's price trends.

Truworths International Related Equities

Risk & Return

Correlation

Truworths International Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Truworths International's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Truworths International's current price.

Truworths International Market Strength Events

Truworths International Risk Indicators

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Truworths Stock