Gentherm Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

THRM Stock  USD 43.64  0.12  0.28%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Gentherm on the next trading day is expected to be 41.13 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.77 and the sum of the absolute errors of 107.82. Gentherm Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Gentherm's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Gentherm's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Gentherm fundamentals over time.
  
As of the 11th of December 2024, Inventory Turnover is likely to drop to 5.16. In addition to that, Payables Turnover is likely to drop to 4.87. As of the 11th of December 2024, Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to grow to about 35.8 M, while Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop about 21.7 M.

Open Interest Against 2024-12-20 Gentherm Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Gentherm's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Gentherm's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Gentherm stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Gentherm's open interest, investors have to compare it to Gentherm's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Gentherm is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Gentherm. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Gentherm price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Gentherm Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 12th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Gentherm on the next trading day is expected to be 41.13 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.77, mean absolute percentage error of 4.46, and the sum of the absolute errors of 107.82.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Gentherm Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Gentherm's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Gentherm Stock Forecast Pattern

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Gentherm Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Gentherm's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Gentherm's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 39.24 and 43.03, respectively. We have considered Gentherm's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
43.64
41.13
Expected Value
43.03
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Gentherm stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Gentherm stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.6054
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.7676
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0404
SAESum of the absolute errors107.821
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Gentherm historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Gentherm

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Gentherm. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
41.4243.3245.22
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
38.9751.5153.41
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
38.5943.3548.11
Details
6 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
68.2575.0083.25
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Gentherm

For every potential investor in Gentherm, whether a beginner or expert, Gentherm's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Gentherm Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Gentherm. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Gentherm's price trends.

Gentherm Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Gentherm stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Gentherm could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Gentherm by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Gentherm Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Gentherm's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Gentherm's current price.

Gentherm Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Gentherm stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Gentherm shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Gentherm stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Gentherm entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Gentherm Risk Indicators

The analysis of Gentherm's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Gentherm's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting gentherm stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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When determining whether Gentherm is a strong investment it is important to analyze Gentherm's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Gentherm's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Gentherm Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Gentherm to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Gentherm Stock, please use our How to Invest in Gentherm guide.
You can also try the Top Crypto Exchanges module to search and analyze digital assets across top global cryptocurrency exchanges.
Is Automotive Parts & Equipment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Gentherm. If investors know Gentherm will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Gentherm listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.063
Earnings Share
2.12
Revenue Per Share
46.587
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.015
Return On Assets
0.0638
The market value of Gentherm is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Gentherm that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Gentherm's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Gentherm's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Gentherm's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Gentherm's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Gentherm's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Gentherm is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Gentherm's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.