Triumph Financial Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| TFIN Stock | 100.56 1.36 1.33% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Triumph Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 100.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.87 and the sum of the absolute errors of 110.20. Triumph Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Triumph Financial's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Triumph Financial's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Triumph Financial fundamentals over time.
Triumph |
Triumph Financial Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 15th of December 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Triumph Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 100.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.87, mean absolute percentage error of 5.63, and the sum of the absolute errors of 110.20.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Triumph Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Triumph Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Triumph Financial Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Triumph Financial | Triumph Financial Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Triumph Financial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Triumph Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Triumph Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 97.75 and 102.62, respectively. We have considered Triumph Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Triumph Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Triumph Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.2165 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.8679 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0202 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 110.2046 |
Predictive Modules for Triumph Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Triumph Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Triumph Financial
For every potential investor in Triumph, whether a beginner or expert, Triumph Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Triumph Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Triumph. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Triumph Financial's price trends.View Triumph Financial Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Triumph Financial Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Triumph Financial's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Triumph Financial's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Triumph Financial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Triumph Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Triumph Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Triumph Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Triumph Financial entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0232 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.57) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 101.56 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 101.23 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 2.38 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (1.68) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.36) |
Triumph Financial Risk Indicators
The analysis of Triumph Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Triumph Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting triumph stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.89 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.48 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.43 | |||
| Variance | 5.89 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.95 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.2 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.40) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Triumph Financial
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Triumph Financial position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Triumph Financial will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Triumph Stock
| 0.93 | AX | Axos Financial | PairCorr |
| 0.92 | BY | Byline Bancorp Fiscal Year End 23rd of January 2025 | PairCorr |
| 0.93 | PB | Prosperity Bancshares Fiscal Year End 22nd of January 2025 | PairCorr |
Moving against Triumph Stock
| 0.85 | CFG-PE | Citizens Financial | PairCorr |
| 0.78 | TFC-PR | Truist Financial | PairCorr |
| 0.76 | TFC-PO | Truist Financial | PairCorr |
| 0.46 | WF | Woori Financial Group | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Triumph Financial could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Triumph Financial when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Triumph Financial - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Triumph Financial to buy it.
The correlation of Triumph Financial is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Triumph Financial moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Triumph Financial moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Triumph Financial can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Triumph Financial to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Triumph Stock, please use our How to Invest in Triumph Financial guide.You can also try the Technical Analysis module to check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Triumph Financial. If investors know Triumph will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Triumph Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.63) | Earnings Share 0.8 | Revenue Per Share 17.123 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.02) | Return On Assets 0.0038 |
The market value of Triumph Financial is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Triumph that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Triumph Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Triumph Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Triumph Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Triumph Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Triumph Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Triumph Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Triumph Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.