The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Sun International on the next trading day is expected to be 4,332 with a mean absolute deviation of 54.36 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3,316. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast Sun International's stock prices and determine the direction of Sun International's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Sun International's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Check out World Market Map to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in inflation.
Sun
Sun International polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Sun International as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.
Sun International Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 7th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Sun International on the next trading day is expected to be 4,332 with a mean absolute deviation of 54.36, mean absolute percentage error of 4,924, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3,316.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Sun Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Sun International's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Sun International Stock Forecast Pattern
Sun International Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Sun International's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Sun International's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 4,331 and 4,334, respectively. We have considered Sun International's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Sun International stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Sun International stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AIC
Akaike Information Criteria
126.6123
Bias
Arithmetic mean of the errors
None
MAD
Mean absolute deviation
54.3639
MAPE
Mean absolute percentage error
0.0123
SAE
Sum of the absolute errors
3316.2006
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Sun International historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm
Predictive Modules for Sun International
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Sun International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Other Forecasting Options for Sun International
For every potential investor in Sun, whether a beginner or expert, Sun International's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Sun Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Sun. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Sun International's price trends.
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Sun International stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Sun International could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Sun International by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Sun International Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Sun International's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Sun International's current price.
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Sun International stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Sun International shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Sun International stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Sun International entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
The analysis of Sun International's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Sun International's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting sun stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.