Soligenix Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

SNGX Stock  USD 3.15  0.08  2.48%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Soligenix on the next trading day is expected to be 3.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.82. Soligenix Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
At this time, Soligenix's Inventory Turnover is fairly stable compared to the past year. Payables Turnover is likely to rise to 0.81 in 2024, whereas Receivables Turnover is likely to drop 4.09 in 2024. . Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to rise to about 509.1 K in 2024, whereas Net Loss is likely to drop (11.9 M) in 2024.
Soligenix simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Soligenix are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Soligenix prices get older.

Soligenix Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 6th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Soligenix on the next trading day is expected to be 3.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.82.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Soligenix Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Soligenix's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Soligenix Stock Forecast Pattern

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Soligenix Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Soligenix's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Soligenix's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.03 and 8.86, respectively. We have considered Soligenix's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
3.15
3.19
Expected Value
8.86
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Soligenix stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Soligenix stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.0233
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0093
MADMean absolute deviation0.1303
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0341
SAESum of the absolute errors7.818
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Soligenix forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Soligenix observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Soligenix

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Soligenix. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.163.178.83
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.163.138.79
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
2.963.253.61
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Soligenix. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Soligenix's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Soligenix's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Soligenix.

Other Forecasting Options for Soligenix

For every potential investor in Soligenix, whether a beginner or expert, Soligenix's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Soligenix Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Soligenix. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Soligenix's price trends.

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 Risk & Return  Correlation

Soligenix Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Soligenix's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Soligenix's current price.

Soligenix Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Soligenix stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Soligenix shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Soligenix stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Soligenix entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Soligenix Risk Indicators

The analysis of Soligenix's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Soligenix's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting soligenix stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Tools for Soligenix Stock Analysis

When running Soligenix's price analysis, check to measure Soligenix's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Soligenix is operating at the current time. Most of Soligenix's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Soligenix's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Soligenix's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Soligenix to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.