Sprouts Farmers Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

SFM Stock  USD 148.40  5.53  3.87%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Sprouts Farmers Market on the next trading day is expected to be 147.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 190.13. Sprouts Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Sprouts Farmers' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Sprouts Farmers' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Sprouts Farmers fundamentals over time.
  
As of the 1st of March 2025, Fixed Asset Turnover is likely to grow to 5.65, while Inventory Turnover is likely to drop 11.20. . As of the 1st of March 2025, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop to about 101.2 M. In addition to that, Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to drop to about 169.1 M.

Open Interest Against 2025-04-17 Sprouts Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Sprouts Farmers' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Sprouts Farmers' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Sprouts Farmers stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Sprouts Farmers' open interest, investors have to compare it to Sprouts Farmers' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Sprouts Farmers is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Sprouts. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Sprouts Farmers works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Sprouts Farmers Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 2nd of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Sprouts Farmers Market on the next trading day is expected to be 147.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.17, mean absolute percentage error of 25.10, and the sum of the absolute errors of 190.13.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Sprouts Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Sprouts Farmers' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Sprouts Farmers Stock Forecast Pattern

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Sprouts Farmers Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Sprouts Farmers' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Sprouts Farmers' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 144.48 and 150.60, respectively. We have considered Sprouts Farmers' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
148.40
144.48
Downside
147.54
Expected Value
150.60
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Sprouts Farmers stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Sprouts Farmers stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.4609
MADMean absolute deviation3.1689
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0213
SAESum of the absolute errors190.1349
When Sprouts Farmers Market prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Sprouts Farmers Market trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Sprouts Farmers observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Sprouts Farmers

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Sprouts Farmers Market. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
144.98148.04151.10
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
139.60142.66163.24
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
138.73161.80184.87
Details
15 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
123.00135.17150.04
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Sprouts Farmers. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Sprouts Farmers' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Sprouts Farmers' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Sprouts Farmers Market.

Other Forecasting Options for Sprouts Farmers

For every potential investor in Sprouts, whether a beginner or expert, Sprouts Farmers' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Sprouts Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Sprouts. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Sprouts Farmers' price trends.

Sprouts Farmers Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Sprouts Farmers stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Sprouts Farmers could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Sprouts Farmers by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Sprouts Farmers Market Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Sprouts Farmers' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Sprouts Farmers' current price.

Sprouts Farmers Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Sprouts Farmers stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Sprouts Farmers shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Sprouts Farmers stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Sprouts Farmers Market entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Sprouts Farmers Risk Indicators

The analysis of Sprouts Farmers' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Sprouts Farmers' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting sprouts stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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When determining whether Sprouts Farmers Market is a strong investment it is important to analyze Sprouts Farmers' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Sprouts Farmers' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Sprouts Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Sprouts Farmers to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Share Portfolio module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.
Is Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Sprouts Farmers. If investors know Sprouts will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Sprouts Farmers listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.597
Earnings Share
3.74
Revenue Per Share
76.914
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.175
Return On Assets
0.0906
The market value of Sprouts Farmers Market is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Sprouts that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Sprouts Farmers' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Sprouts Farmers' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Sprouts Farmers' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Sprouts Farmers' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Sprouts Farmers' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Sprouts Farmers is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Sprouts Farmers' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.