SET Total Index Forecast - 20 Period Moving Average
| SETTRI Index | 8,905 19.10 0.21% |
SET Total 20 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 19th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of SET Total Return on the next trading day is expected to be 9,087 with a mean absolute deviation of 327.66, mean absolute percentage error of 122,115, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13,762.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict SET Index prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that SET Total's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
SET Total Index Forecast Pattern
SET Total Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting SET Total's Index value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. SET Total's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9,085 and 9,088, respectively. We have considered SET Total's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 20 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of SET Total index data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent SET Total index, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 94.9036 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 327.6615 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 327.6615 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0349 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 13761.785 |
Predictive Modules for SET Total
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as SET Total Return. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the index market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the index market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for SET Total
For every potential investor in SET, whether a beginner or expert, SET Total's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. SET Index price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in SET. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying SET Total's price trends.SET Total Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with SET Total index to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of SET Total could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing SET Total by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
SET Total Return Technical and Predictive Analytics
The index market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of SET Total's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of SET Total's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
SET Total Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how SET Total index reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading SET Total shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying SET Total index market strength indicators, traders can identify SET Total Return entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | (9,223,372,036,855) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 8904.62 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 8904.62 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (9.55) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (19.10) |
SET Total Risk Indicators
The analysis of SET Total's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in SET Total's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting set index prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8714 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.06 | |||
| Variance | 1.13 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.