The 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of SET50 Index on the next trading day is expected to be 901.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 9.69 and the sum of the absolute errors of 513.50. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast SET50 Index's index prices and determine the direction of SET50 Index's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading.
An 8-period moving average forecast model for SET50 Index is based on an artificially constructed time series of SET50 Index daily prices in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 8 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time.
SET50 Index 8 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 8th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of SET50 Index on the next trading day is expected to be 901.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 9.69, mean absolute percentage error of 150.73, and the sum of the absolute errors of 513.50.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict SET50 Index prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that SET50 Index's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
SET50 Index Index Forecast Pattern
SET50 Index Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting SET50 Index's Index value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. SET50 Index's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 900.22 and 901.81, respectively. We have considered SET50 Index's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 8 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of SET50 Index index data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent SET50 Index index, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AIC
Akaike Information Criteria
108.423
Bias
Arithmetic mean of the errors
3.5912
MAD
Mean absolute deviation
9.6887
MAPE
Mean absolute percentage error
0.0105
SAE
Sum of the absolute errors
513.5037
The eieght-period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and valleys in a set of daily observations. SET50 Index 8-period moving average forecast can only be used reliably to predict one or two periods into the future.
Predictive Modules for SET50 Index
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as SET50 Index. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the index market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the index market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Other Forecasting Options for SET50 Index
For every potential investor in SET50, whether a beginner or expert, SET50 Index's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. SET50 Index price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in SET50. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying SET50 Index's price trends.
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with SET50 Index index to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of SET50 Index could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing SET50 Index by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
The index market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of SET50 Index's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of SET50 Index's current price.
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how SET50 Index index reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading SET50 Index shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying SET50 Index index market strength indicators, traders can identify SET50 Index entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
The analysis of SET50 Index's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in SET50 Index's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting set50 index prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.