RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

RGYAS Stock   120.90  1.20  0.98%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL YAT on the next trading day is expected to be 121.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.28 and the sum of the absolute errors of 129.85. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL's stock prices and determine the direction of RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL YAT's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Check out Your Equity Center to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in state.
  
A four-period moving average forecast model for RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL YAT is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 24th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL YAT on the next trading day is expected to be 121.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.28, mean absolute percentage error of 8.60, and the sum of the absolute errors of 129.85.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict RONESANS Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL Stock Forecast Pattern

RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 119.61 and 123.24, respectively. We have considered RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
120.90
119.61
Downside
121.42
Expected Value
123.24
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria112.9106
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.5202
MADMean absolute deviation2.2781
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0197
SAESum of the absolute errors129.85
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL YAT and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL YAT. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.

Other Forecasting Options for RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL

For every potential investor in RONESANS, whether a beginner or expert, RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. RONESANS Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in RONESANS. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL's price trends.

RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL YAT Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL's current price.

RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL stock market strength indicators, traders can identify RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL YAT entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL Risk Indicators

The analysis of RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ronesans stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Thematic Opportunities

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