REC Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

RECLTD Stock   507.40  5.00  0.98%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of REC Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 502.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 10.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 607.99. REC Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast REC stock prices and determine the direction of REC Limited's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of REC's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
At present, REC's Total Assets are projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Short and Long Term Debt Total is expected to grow to about 4.7 T, whereas Other Current Liabilities is projected to grow to (345.5 B).
Triple exponential smoothing for REC - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When REC prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in REC price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of REC Limited.

REC Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of REC Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 502.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 10.13, mean absolute percentage error of 166.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 607.99.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict REC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that REC's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

REC Stock Forecast Pattern

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REC Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting REC's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. REC's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 500.26 and 504.70, respectively. We have considered REC's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
507.40
500.26
Downside
502.48
Expected Value
504.70
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of REC stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent REC stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 1.9527
MADMean absolute deviation10.1332
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0193
SAESum of the absolute errors607.9945
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past REC observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older REC Limited observations.

Predictive Modules for REC

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as REC Limited. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of REC's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
505.26507.48509.70
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
408.77410.99558.14
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
16.4016.9317.46
Details

Other Forecasting Options for REC

For every potential investor in REC, whether a beginner or expert, REC's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. REC Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in REC. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying REC's price trends.

REC Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with REC stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of REC could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing REC by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

REC Limited Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of REC's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of REC's current price.

REC Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how REC stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading REC shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying REC stock market strength indicators, traders can identify REC Limited entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

REC Risk Indicators

The analysis of REC's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in REC's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting rec stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in REC Stock

REC financial ratios help investors to determine whether REC Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in REC with respect to the benefits of owning REC security.