Sociedad Qumica Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

QYM Stock  EUR 35.70  0.20  0.56%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Sociedad Qumica y on the next trading day is expected to be 35.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.75 and the sum of the absolute errors of 44.51. Sociedad Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Sociedad Qumica's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Sociedad Qumica works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Sociedad Qumica Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Sociedad Qumica y on the next trading day is expected to be 35.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.75, mean absolute percentage error of 0.93, and the sum of the absolute errors of 44.51.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Sociedad Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Sociedad Qumica's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Sociedad Qumica Stock Forecast Pattern

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Sociedad Qumica Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Sociedad Qumica's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Sociedad Qumica's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 33.03 and 38.17, respectively. We have considered Sociedad Qumica's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
35.70
35.60
Expected Value
38.17
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Sociedad Qumica stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Sociedad Qumica stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.1477
MADMean absolute deviation0.7545
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0204
SAESum of the absolute errors44.5145
When Sociedad Qumica y prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Sociedad Qumica y trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Sociedad Qumica observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Sociedad Qumica

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Sociedad Qumica y. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
33.1335.7038.27
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
27.9030.4739.27
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Sociedad Qumica

For every potential investor in Sociedad, whether a beginner or expert, Sociedad Qumica's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Sociedad Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Sociedad. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Sociedad Qumica's price trends.

Sociedad Qumica Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Sociedad Qumica stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Sociedad Qumica could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Sociedad Qumica by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Sociedad Qumica y Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Sociedad Qumica's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Sociedad Qumica's current price.

Sociedad Qumica Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Sociedad Qumica stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Sociedad Qumica shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Sociedad Qumica stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Sociedad Qumica y entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Sociedad Qumica Risk Indicators

The analysis of Sociedad Qumica's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Sociedad Qumica's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting sociedad stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Sociedad Stock

Sociedad Qumica financial ratios help investors to determine whether Sociedad Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Sociedad with respect to the benefits of owning Sociedad Qumica security.