QUALCOMM Incorporated Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

QCOMD Stock  USD 15.25  0.15  0.97%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of QUALCOMM Incorporated on the next trading day is expected to be 15.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27 and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.24. QUALCOMM Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast QUALCOMM Incorporated stock prices and determine the direction of QUALCOMM Incorporated's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of QUALCOMM Incorporated's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A naive forecasting model for QUALCOMM Incorporated is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of QUALCOMM Incorporated value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

QUALCOMM Incorporated Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 5th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of QUALCOMM Incorporated on the next trading day is expected to be 15.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27, mean absolute percentage error of 0.12, and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.24.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict QUALCOMM Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that QUALCOMM Incorporated's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

QUALCOMM Incorporated Stock Forecast Pattern

QUALCOMM Incorporated Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting QUALCOMM Incorporated's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. QUALCOMM Incorporated's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 12.84 and 18.36, respectively. We have considered QUALCOMM Incorporated's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
15.25
15.60
Expected Value
18.36
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of QUALCOMM Incorporated stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent QUALCOMM Incorporated stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.9637
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2662
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0168
SAESum of the absolute errors16.2384
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of QUALCOMM Incorporated. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict QUALCOMM Incorporated. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for QUALCOMM Incorporated

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as QUALCOMM Incorporated. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of QUALCOMM Incorporated's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
12.4915.2518.01
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
12.8315.5918.35
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
14.9115.2315.55
Details

Other Forecasting Options for QUALCOMM Incorporated

For every potential investor in QUALCOMM, whether a beginner or expert, QUALCOMM Incorporated's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. QUALCOMM Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in QUALCOMM. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying QUALCOMM Incorporated's price trends.

QUALCOMM Incorporated Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with QUALCOMM Incorporated stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of QUALCOMM Incorporated could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing QUALCOMM Incorporated by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

QUALCOMM Incorporated Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of QUALCOMM Incorporated's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of QUALCOMM Incorporated's current price.

QUALCOMM Incorporated Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how QUALCOMM Incorporated stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading QUALCOMM Incorporated shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying QUALCOMM Incorporated stock market strength indicators, traders can identify QUALCOMM Incorporated entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

QUALCOMM Incorporated Risk Indicators

The analysis of QUALCOMM Incorporated's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in QUALCOMM Incorporated's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting qualcomm stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in QUALCOMM Stock

When determining whether QUALCOMM Incorporated is a strong investment it is important to analyze QUALCOMM Incorporated's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact QUALCOMM Incorporated's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding QUALCOMM Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out fundamental analysis of QUALCOMM Incorporated to check your projections.
For information on how to trade QUALCOMM Stock refer to our How to Trade QUALCOMM Stock guide.
You can also try the Commodity Directory module to find actively traded commodities issued by global exchanges.
Please note, there is a significant difference between QUALCOMM Incorporated's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if QUALCOMM Incorporated is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, QUALCOMM Incorporated's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.